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Friday September 29, 2006 - 10:04:42 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Euro was firm after hawkish ECB comments.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
EurJpy hit one-week highs after hawkish comments from ECB policymakers confirmed expectations of two more euro zone interest rate increases this year. It hit a one-week high of 149.82 before trimming gains to 149.31. Eurusd was up 0.15 at 1.2717 and UsdJpy was up 0.25% at 117.95. The ECB has lifted rates; now at 3%, four times since last December and investors expect another 0.25% hike at its October policy meeting. That sentiment boosted the euro against the low-yielding JPY which remains vulnerable to â€ścarry tradesâ€ť as investors borrow JPY cheaply and selling them against higher-yielding currencies. Dollar dipped a little after a weaker than expected final reading of second quarter US economic growth. But trade was choppy between 1.2679 â€“ 1.2715 range.
Todays Key Issues:
GB BoE August Consumer Credit due at 08:30 GMT expected ÂŁ0.3B to $1.2B vs 1.1B. Are due at 9:00 GMT: Eurozone September CPI expected 1.9% vs 2.3% and Eurozone September Industry Confidence expected 1 vs 2. GB September GfK consumer Confidence due at 9:00 GMT expected from -9 to -4 vs -8 August. Are due at 12:30 GMT: US August Personal Income expected 0.3% vs 0.5% and US Core PCE price index expected 0.2% vs 0.1% MoM and 3.2% vs 3.4%. US September Chicago Purchasing managers due at 14:00 GMT expected 57 vs 57.1.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD maintains a slightly bearish tone as long as 1.2834 holds, we continue to favor a move to and break of 1.2630 low. This would open the gateway to 1.2560. USDCHF has defined a floor at 1.2291, just above support at 1.2287 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2183 to 1.2625). While this level remains intact, we look for extended gains targeting 1.2545 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2625 to 1.2291), and targeting 1.2625 thereafter. Intraday support cuts in at 1.2370. GBPUSD having returned 1.8920 exposes 1.8713 (76.4% retracement of the 1.8601 to 1.9076) and may pave the way to 1.8601. Maintain a near-term bearish bias below 1.8962. USDJPY remains choppy in a smaller range, with Key levels define at 116.06 low and 118.30 high - a break of either extreme is needed to initiate the next strong directional trend. Note too the fact that a key multi-year trendline / triangle resistance is located at 118.50.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.9220 T ||119.20 S ||1.2800 P |
|1.2834 S ||1.8920 S ||118.50 P ||1.2625 S |
|1.2763 M ||1.8860 M ||118.30 T ||1.2545 T |
|1.2680 ||1.8720 ||118.06 ||1.2530 |
|1.2680 S ||1.8713 S ||116.06 T ||1.2497 M |
|1.2630 K ||1.8663 M ||115.56 S ||1.2370 M |
|1.2560 M ||1.8601 K ||115.20 K ||1.2287 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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