User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday September 29, 2006 - 10:32:25 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• JPY remains soft after CPI – EUR-USD edges lower.
• NZD and AUD weaker.
• US core PCE prices, Michigan sentiment feature today.

Market Outlook

Japanese CPI and other releases overnight have done little to change perceptions about the Japanese interest rate backdrop, although it could have been worse. The tick up in the CPI ex-fresh foods y/y rate to +0.3% from +0.2% will at least allow the authorities to continue claiming that an upward trend is now intact, meaning that the BoJ could justify a further 25bp rate hike by year-end. However, doubts will remain about the capacity of Japan to generate meaningful inflation, with the alternative core measure of CPI (excluding food and energy) falling back to -0.4% y/y from -0.3% - see charts on page 2. The path to interest rate normalisation is likely to be pedestrian at best, so there is no danger of the JPY shaking off its low-yield status any time soon. This will mean ongoing vulnerability for the JPY, although the immediate outlook is unclear, there still being a risk of position liquidation support. JPY downside may be pressed initially today and if this does occur it will be interesting to see whether any official protest (from Japan or the Eurozone) is made about EUR-JPY.

EUR-USD has been a little softer and the tone of the USD in general could be affected by US data releases later today (see below for preview). However, it will take something unusual to change current perceptions about US rates. Some downside risk remains on EUR-USD in the near-term. The Eurozone CPI y/y rate fell to +1.8% from +2.3% (market had expected +1.9%) due to last year’s German tobacco tax hike falling out of the calculation and softer fuel prices. However, sub-2% inflation may not be sustained for too long, especially with the German VAT hike due in January. Eurozone business sentiment indicators were generally strong. It will be interesting to see Trichet’s take on inflation developments at next week’s ECB meeting.

NZ GDP came out a touch weaker than expected and this prompted a sharp fall in the NZD, with the extent of the move perhaps reflecting the vulnerability that has been displayed this week. The data is seen as reducing the risk of an RBNZ rate hike, although that decision will also depend upon the tone of the next quarterly CPI release on October 25 (the day before the next RBNZ announcement). There is now a weaker bias on the NZD and this will remain in pace while it stays below 0.6540-50.

The AUD also continues to trade in a soft manner, with little attention having been paid to the recent recovery in the price of gold. The price action has been troubling this week and the chart now suggests the possibility of a deeper pullback (towards 0.7400). The AUD is still favoured further out, but there is clearly a risk of some short-term weakness. Data out this morning was also a little disappointing, with the +0.9% m/m rise in private sector credit being the weakest recorded since July last year. This data will be seen as evidence of RBA tightening already having some impact, although it is just one piece of data.

This morning’s UK data has not revealed anything new. Mortgage numbers were a touch softer than expected, but still solid, while consumer confidence recovered a little from the rate hike inspired fall in August. After the price action this week EUR-GBP will for the time being retain an upside bias (to 0.6800-25). Below 0.6740 is needed to suggest a fresh attempt on the downside.

Day Ahead
US – personal income and expenditure and core PCE prices are due for August. Core PCE prices have been generally softer than core CPI during the course of this year, due to CPI being boosted by the ‘owner-equivalent rent’ category. However, this was not the case in the latest CPI data so the outlook for August core PCE prices is less clear. Michigan sentiment is also due and a stronger reading looks likely after the recent fall in fuel prices.

Canada – monthly GDP is due and a bounce back is expected in July after the softer numbers seen in May and June. This pattern looks similar to what happened to retail sales over the same period either side of the July 1 sales tax cut – May/June spending being deferred until July.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

ZA Trade balance (Aug) 08.00 -ZAR4.1bn
US Personal income (Aug) m/m 08.30 +0.3%
US PCE (Aug) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Core PCE price index (Aug) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Core PCE price index (Aug) y/y 08.30 +2.4%
CA GDP (Jul) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
TR Trade balance (Aug) 09.30 -$4.4bn
US Michigan sentiment (Sep, fin) 09.45 85.0
US Chicago PMI (Sep) 10.00 56.0
US Fed’s Poole spks 10.00

Latest data Actual Consensus*
FR Unemployment rate (Aug) 9.0% 8.9%
FR ILO job seekers (Aug) m/m +9k -20k
NZ GDP (Q2) q/q +0.5% +0.6%
JP CPI Tokyo (Sep, core) y/y 0.0% 0.0%
JP CPI Nwide (Aug, core) y/y +0.3% +0.3%
JP Unemployment rate (Aug) 4.1% 4.1%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (Aug) 1.08 1.10
JP Overall PCE (Aug) y/y -4.3% -1.2%
JP PMI manu (Sep) 54.8 54.6 last
JP Ind prod (Aug, prel) m/m +1.9% +2.0%
AU Private sector credit (Aug) m/m +0.9% +1.1%
JP Housing starts (Aug) y/y +1.8% -1.2%
DE Retail sales (Aug) m/m 0.0% +0.8%
FR Household survey (Sep) -22 -24
NO Unemployment rate (Jul, sa) 3.0% 3.1%
GB Consumer credit (Aug) +£0.8bn +£0.8bn
GB Net lending sec’d on dwellings (Aug) +£9.1bn +£10bn
GB Mortgage approvals (Aug, sa) 119k 121k
EU CPI (Sep, flash est) y/y +1.8% +1.9%
EU Econ sentiment (Sep) 109.3 106.3
EU Business climate index (Sep) 1.46 1.20
IT CPI (Sep, prel) y/y +2.2% +2.2%
GB Consumer confidence (Sep) -7 -7
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105