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Monday October 2, 2006 - 06:11:31 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar holds steady, trapped in ranges
By Stéphane Marie - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
After trading near two weeks highs against the euro Friday, the dollar retraced most of its gains as profit seeking investors sold greenbacks rather than trying to pierce well worn ranges. There was some relatively dollar positive U.S. economic data released Friday morning that had the potential to push the greenback into new, stronger frontiers against the yen and euro after several months of tight summer trading. The dollar began the NY session on a positive note after a sell off of the UK pound pushed the dollar higher across the board in earlier global trading. Analysts said the pound was still being punished for a Wednesday announcement by the UK Office for National Statistics that it had overestimated the cash value of national income last month. It looks like the bank of England wonâ€™t be as quick to raise interest rates.
The yen gave up brief gains against the dollar and the euro after a surprisingly strong tankan survey of business sentiment did little to change the outlook for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates only gradually.
Todays Key Issues:
Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing Survey at 09h00 (BST).
UK PMI Manufacturing Survey at 09h30 (BST).
US ISM Manufacturing at 15h00 (BST).
The Risk Today:
The market tried to react on the positive data, but the yen didnâ€™t go up. The Japanese currency is structurally weak, despite the strong data; the yen will continue to be weak. The dollar rose as high 118.40 yen, the strongest since mid April, before slipping back to 118.20 yen, little changed from level in late NY trade on Friday.The European Central Bank is widely seen lifting rates to 3.25% at a meeting on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are also slated to meet this week.Record low at-the-money implied volatility in many currencies pairs hints that some may give up on foreign exchange all together. The more this becomes the case, the higher the likelihood of a big move in Q4, where end-of-year book squaring and thin markets are likely to exacerbates moves. We see no reason to reverse our long held outlook for a weaker US dollar despite the extraordinarily slow pace this year.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.8880 S ||119.80 T ||1.2700 S |
|1.2834 S ||1.8810 T ||119.30 S ||1.2625 T |
|1.2763 M ||1.8775 M ||119.00 P ||1.2545 M |
|1.2670 ||1.8700 ||118.35 ||1.2520 |
|1.2630 S ||1.8683 M ||118.00 T ||1.2500 T |
|1.2580 K ||1.8650 S ||117.75 S ||1.2460 S |
|1.2500 M ||1.8620 K ||117.25 K ||1.2425 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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