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Tuesday October 3, 2006 - 13:50:36 GMT
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Forex Market Update: Yen Provides Europe’s Activity

Published: Oct. 03 2006, 12:39 GMT

Yen Provides Europe’s Activity

A combination of news from North Korea and rumor involving ECB and BoJ intervention made JPY traders jumpy.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Swiss CPI (Sept) mom -0.2% vs. 0.0% exp, yoy 0.8% vs. 1.1% exp.
• UK PMI Construction (Sept) 53.6 vs. 55.00 exp
• Euro-Zone Unemployment (Aug) 7.9% vs 7.8% exp.
• Euro-Zone PPI (Aug) mom 0.1% vs. 0.2% exp., yoy 5.7% vs. 5.7% exp.
• South Africa Naamsa Vehicles Sales (Sept) yoy 5.6% vs. 12.5 prior reading
• NZ ANZ Commodity Price (Sept) vs. 0.4% prior reading

FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE
• SW Swedbank PMI Survey (sept) 61.8 vs 61.0 exp.
• DE Retail Sales (Aug) mom 0.7% vs. 0.5% exp., yoy 3.0% vs. 1.9% exp.
• FR PMI Manufacturing (sept) 56.0 vs. 56.0 exp.
• GE PMI Manufacturing (sept) 58.4 vs 58.0 exp.
• EC PMI Manufacturing (sept) 56.6 vs. 56.5 exp.
• UK PMI Manufacturing (sept) 54.4 vs. 53.0 exp.
• DE PMI Manufacturing (sept) 62.0 vs 60.5 prior month reading
• PD Current Account -1184 vs -1606M prior
• SA Investec PMI (sept) 56.3 vs 59.8 prior
• US Construction Spending (MoM) Aug, out at 0.3% vs. -0.3% exp.
• US ISM Manufacturing Sep, out at 52.9 vs. 53.5 exp.
• US ISM Prices Paid Sep, out at 61.0 vs. 67.5 exp.
• US Pending Home Sales (MoM) Aug, out at 4.3% vs. 0.0% exp.
• AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index Sep, out at 53.5 vs. 52.1 exp.
• AU Building Approvals (MoM) Aug, out at -12.6% vs -3.0% exp.
• AU Retail Sales Aug, out at 0.3% vs. 0.2% exp.
• JN Monetary Base (YoY) Sep, out at -21.2% vs. -22.4% exp.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• US Consumer Confidence
• AU RBA Cash Rate Decision
• Fed's Hoenig Speaks

Very quiet Asia and Europe session.

JPY
Saber rattling from North Korea scared the market and sent the JPY plummeting. The market has always been concerned that Japans PM Abe’s past remarks on North Korea (he gain significant fame during the last NK missile test) would cause eventual friction... and it feels like the stand-off will occur sooner then later. This story is not yet finished. EURJPY raced to 150.20, GBPJPY 222.59 and USDJPY hit 117.75.

AUD
Australia released a wealth of positive data including AiG Mfg Index 53.4, Retails Sales 0.3% and Building approvals 2.1%, showing signings that the economy is still growth at a decent pace. Only the volatile building approval mom declined -12.6% as higher interest rate deterred property investors. We see this as more of a consumer adjustment to rates, which the RBA raised in Aug, than a fundamental shift in demand. We are still very bullish on the AUD and strength has been underpinned by the collapse in commodity prices. A reversal in commodities prices should boost the AUD against the NZD and JPY. The RBA is expected to hold rates this time around at 6.00%, with a bias to an additional 25bp hike by years end. This growing expectation should provide the AUD with legs this week.

CHF
CPI figures should come in as expected or lower as seen in other European economies. As lower oil prices filtered through the production complex. Similar to the new global environment which much account for easing inflation CHF also have seen CPI taper off. Today’s figures should support the SNB strategy to rise rates at there own pace and not towards market expectations. We could see a sell off as the probability of normalizing rates disappears from the SNB monetary policy. Despite rally against the USD the CHF has had a hard time with EUR and GBP.

EUR
Todays release of PPI data should be line (however recent readings might pull this figure further down) with the changing inflationary landscape viewed globally recent EuroZone inflation indicators seem to be tapering off. Sept headline CPI reading fell to 2.3% from 2.4% and Core dropped to 1.3% from 1.4%. Today’s PPI are expected to continue to decline, as producers were more willing got absorb cost to sustain competitiveness and activity (ZEW shows a significant decline in business confidence). Should today’s PPI figures follow inflations decay the market will be forces to reconsidered the all but assured end of year hike. After yesterdays late NY bull rally the EUR has strong momentum should the results deviate in either direction we will see a rapid market reaction.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2723 @ 12:37 GMT)
EURUSD taking out and closing above 1.2730 resistance and maintaining gains above 1.2730 through the Asian now intra-day support. Look for a close in early Europe which gives scope for a test of 1.2795 and possibly 1.2825. For the downside a close below 1.2645 retracment support to confirm a 1.2460 target.

Resist.
1.2913
1.2816
1.2776
1.2723
1.2679
1.2622
1.2525
Support

Quoted:
03 Oct 06
12:37 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8871 @ 12:37 GMT)
GBPUSD able to close above 1.8850 50% (1.9070-1.8635) which maintains the bullish bias from the NY trading session. buy the downticks or a break of 1.8910 for a test of 1.8980 short term. A close below 1.8800 would bring the intra-week bearish bias back.

Resist.
1.9208
1.9008
1.8937
1.8871
1.8737
1.8607
1.8406
Support

Quoted:
03 Oct 06
12:37 GMT

US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (117.85 @ 12:37 GMT)
USDJPY remians bearish as long as 118.40 resistance remain intact, but increased upside acceleration is only likely with the break of 118.75 bear trend line from 1998. USDJPy stopped just shy of 117.51 38% retracement (116.15-118.34). Look to either sell the break of mentioned retracement or rallies towards 117.90-00.

Resist.
119.59
118.72
118.18
117.85
117.31
116.98
116.11
Support

Quoted:
03 Oct 06
12:37 GMT

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


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