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Tuesday October 3, 2006 - 16:11:35 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (3 October 2006)



The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2720 level and was capped around the $1.2765 level. Technically, the intraweek low remains around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.2980 to $1.2460. Liquidity was thinner-than-normal in Germany on account of the reunification day holiday. Traders continue to anticipate a +25bps hike in interest rates to 3.25% from European Central Bank on Thursday. In contrast, U.S. federal funds futures and Eurodollar futures continue to price in a U.S. interest rate decrease as early as this quarter or Q1 2007. Data released in the eurozone today saw the August unemployment rate climb to 7.9% from 7.8% in July. Additionally, EMU-12 producer prices were up 0.1% m/m and 5.7% y/y. Traders await remarks from Kansas City Fed President overnight followed by remarks from Fed Chairman Bernanke and New York Fed President Geithner tomorrow. U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be released on Friday and are expected to evidence job creation of about 120,000. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2660/ 1.2580 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥117.85 level and was supported around the ¥117.40 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥113.95 to ¥118.40. Notably, the yen’s trade-weighted index value is at a 21-year low according to Bank of Japan. Finance minister Omi today said “looking at the economy in general, we can declare an end to deflation.” News that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test due to the “extreme threat” of nuclear war from the U.S. is weighing on the yen and is likely a test to see how Japan’s new Abe administration will respond. Traders also cited talk that European Central Bank is monitoring the euro’s value vis-à-vis the yen and this coincided with a report from Jiji that euro-selling intervention is possible by Japan’s MoF. Prime Minister Abe indicated he wants to overhaul Japan’s constitution and data released today saw the September monetary base at ¥86.9 trillion, off 21.2% y/y and the seventh consecutive monthly decline. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.08% to close at ¥16,242.09. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥116.75/ 116.15 level. The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the yen today as the single currency tested offers around the ¥150.20 level and was supported around the ¥149.60 level. The British pound and Swiss franc gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥222.70 and ¥94.75 levels, respectively. Chinese financial markets will return to normal next week after this week’s National Day holiday period.



The British pound gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.8895 level and was supported around the $1.8855 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.8600 to $1.9070. Data released in the U.K. today saw September construction PMI recede to 53.6 from August’s reading of 54.5 while Bank of England reported Q2 mortgage equity withdrawal fell back to ₤11.3 billion from ₤12.9 billion in Q1. Recent mortgage lending data, however, have shown a healthy appetite for real estate credit despite Bank of England’s monetary tightening in August. The verdict is split amongst traders as to whether BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee will tighten rates on Thursday or wait until November to pull the trigger. Additional data released today saw Q2 corporate profitability rally to its highest level since records began in 1989. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.8810 level. The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6740 level and was capped around the ₤0.6765 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc lost marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the US$ 1.2460 level and was supported around the $1.2420 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from CHF 1.3235 to CHF 1.1920. Data released in Switzerland today saw September inflation off 0.2% m/m and up 0.8% y/y. Many traders believe these data will result in one more monetary tightening from Swiss National Bank in December and then a pause. Credit Suisse today reported it sees Swiss GDP around 2.8% in 2006 with growth slowing to 2.2% in 2007. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2520/ 80 levels. The euro and British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.5865 and CHF 2.3520 levels, respectively.

AUD

The Australian dollar shed significant ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.7430 level and was capped around the $0.7490 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just below the 38.2% retracement of the move from $0.7015 to 0.7090. Data released in Australia today saw August retail sales climb 0.3% m/m while August building approvals were off 12.6% m/m. Most traders expect Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.0% when they convene tomorrow. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$0.7385 level.

CAD

The Canadian dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.1215 level and was supported around the C$ 1.1150 level. Traders are eyeing the C$ 1.1230 level as the pair’s next upside hurdle. Canadian employment data will be released on Friday. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.1245 level.

NZD

The New Zealand dollar gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the kiwi tested offers around the US$ 0.6620 level and was supported around the $0.6560 level. New Zealand dollar offers are cited around the US$0.6685 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold lost significant ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested bids around the US$ 581.30 level and was capped around the $ 598.35 level. The pullback in the price of oil to below the psychologically-important US$ 60.00 figure and the U.S. dollar’s intraday gains led to weaker gold. Silver came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the cross tested bids around the US$ 11.01 level and was capped around the $11.61 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil dipped lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for November delivery tested bids around the US$ 58.87 level and was capped around the $60.99 level. Today’s lows are around a seven-month low and traders continue to assume the U.S. will not experience any supply-side shocks with regard to oil and gas ahead of the winter-dependent months. The U.S. Energy Department plans to delay the purchase of around eleven million barrels of crude for the U.S.’s emergency reserves. Meteorologists do not believe there will any more major hurricanes this season and traders have so far shrugged off news that Nigeria and Venezuela will suspend some production output.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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