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Tuesday October 3, 2006 - 20:14:09 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar Yield demand continues to underpin NZD
The NZD again pushed higher during yesterday’s trade, as yield demand and a broadly softer USD continues to underpin the currency. In the local session, the NZD established a high of 0.6607 before sellers emerged and pushed on to 0.6619 high overnight, as NZ employment confidence rose for the first time in almost two years. Although the Westpac-McDermott Miller confidence index rose to 126.7 in Q3, gains above 0.6600 proved short-lived and the NZD is seen at 0.6585 in early trade this morning.

Australian Dollar: AUD weighed by Uridashi redemption and gold price fall
Despite a larger than expected fall in building approvals in August, the AUD dipped only briefly following the release as the detail was considered more mixed and August retail sales proved resilient. The currency registered deeper losses in the overnight session however, falling from 0.7485 to a 0.7428 low. Impending Uridashi redemptions totalling A$1.5bn are expected during the first half of October and this, coupled with a 3.5% fall in gold prices overnight weighed upon the currency. The AUD opens this morning at 0.7435, with the RBA expected to leave rates unchanged during today’s announcement window.

Major Currencies: Choppy session for JPY
Most major currencies remained rangebound yesterday ahead of key data later in the week. The exception was USD/JPY which initially rallied on rumours that either the ECB or BoJ were going to intervene in EUR/JPY. This saw the currency pair pushed through 117.40 to test stops around 117.30. However the JPY rally was stopped in its tracks after reports that North Korea will conduct a nuclear test sent it back towards the 118.00 level. The euro dipped as low as 1.2720 where it found good support and the GBP failed to break through 1.8900. The Dow Jones industrial average set an all time high as investors bet that sliding crude oil prices will underpin corporate profits however this had very little impact on FX markets.

Minor US data day. The weekly retail reports were subdued. Chain store sales slipped 0.3%, their fourth straight weekly decline. The Redbook average was unchanged in the five retail weeks of September, compared to the August average. Corporate layoff announcements spiked in September to 100.3k, up from 65.3k in August. Layoffs in the auto sector were a driver. Note that these data are not seasonally adjusted and do not have direct bearing on the monthly payrolls reports.

Minor Euroland data. The Euroland PPI annual rate eased further in August to 5.7% yr, but should decelerate more sharply in September due to falling energy prices. The unemployment rate edged up from July’s five year low at 7.8% to 7.9% in August, consistent with less robust national data (especially in Germany post World Cup) for that month.

UK housing related data. The construction PMI slipped in September to 53.6 after rising through the first two months of the third quarter. At these levels the index is indicative of a moderate pace of activity in the construction sector. When the housing boom peaked in 2003 and 2004, the PMI was in the 58-60 range. Also mortgage equity withdrawal was less significant a support for consumer spending in Q2 than previously thought. It amounted to £11.3bn, down from £12.9bn in Q1, possibly signalling a break to the uptrend that re-emerged in mid 2005 – and well before the August rate rise too. It’s data releases like this that keep alive the possibility that the Bank of England will hold off on a further rate rise for at least a few months longer.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
Aust RBA Announcement Window 6.00% 6.00%
Sep AIG PMI 52.1 n/f
Aug Trade Balance AUDbn –0.6 –0.4
US Sep ADP Private Payrolls 107k n/f
Sep ISM Non-Manufacturing 57.0 57.0
Aug Factory Orders –0.6% flat
Eur Sep PMI Services 57.1 57.1
Aug Retail Sales 0.6% 1.2%
UK Sep House Prices %yr 8.2% 8.0%
Sep PMI Services 56.7 57.0
Sep BRC Shop Price Index

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Q3 Employment Confidence Index (4 October)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (2 October)
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (2 October)
• NZ Q2 GDP Review (29 September)
• NZ Q3 Consumer Confidence (27 September)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (25 September)
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (25 September)
• NZ Q2 GDP Preview (22 September)
• NZ Q2 Current Account Review (21 September)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (18 September)
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (18 September)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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