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Wednesday October 4, 2006 - 05:33:14 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Major currencies were trapped in tight ranges after Eurozone PPI and unemployment which were a little disappointing.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Euro-zone unemployment rate was little up to 7.9% in August from 7.8% in July, the first increase after a near two-year down trend. August increase was driven by a rise in the German unemployment rate from 8.2% to 8.5%. Also release yesterday, the Euro-zone August PPI showed a fall in annual inflation from July‚Äôs 6% to 5.7%. This was driven by a fall in energy inflation from 14.9% to 12.7%. Excluding energy and construction, PPI was up to 3.6% from 3.5%. Following those kind of disappointing data, the ECB will be likely raising interest rates to 3.5% by year-end. The Dollar was steady yesterday after falling heavily on Monday, as traders are looking ahead of Federal Reserve‚Äôs speeches and US jobs report at the end of the week. Overall, major currencies were trapped in tight ranges, with many traders waiting for a series of big events this week, including ECB policy meeting and a speech by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke. Eurusd eased a little from Monday high, it traded between 1.2766 and 1.2720 range. Gbpusd was also steady in small range 1.8901 high and 1.8860 low. The Jpy has been weaker against the eur and usd. Usdjpy rebounded from 117.38 low to 117.98, recovering part of Monday losses. Eurjpy was little more volatile and recovered from 149.59 to 150.20 yesterday. AUD, RBA leaves rate unchanged at 6%, as expected.
Todays Key Issues:
EZ August Retail Sales due at 9:00GMT expected 0.5% vs 0.6% MoM and 2% vs 2.5% YoY. Are due at 14:00 GMT; US Sept ISM non-manufacturing expected 56 vs 57 and US August Factory Orders expected unchanged vs -0.6%.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD remains within latest days range but could break through support at 1.2630 to confirm the potential for further weakness. This would pave the way for a move towards 1.2570. Strong resistance remains 1.2834, driving through would push up to 1.2880. USDCHF recovered from recent low 1.2404 and is holding minor resistance 1.2475. Likely to extend higher; the next resistance is 1.2570 where a break is required to trigger a move towards 1.2625. GBPUSD is expected to remain softer overall with focus on 1.8830, where a break would erase recent gains and hit towards 1.8650 and furthermore 1.8601 key support. Look for resistance to come in at 1.8920. USDJPY While the USD is once again targeting of the key 118.50 key trendline resistance, this level is still likely to be challenged. A clear break would mark a significant bullish development clearing the way to 119.40. Maintain a positive tone with minor support at 117.32.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.9220 T ||119.40 S ||1.2800 P |
|1.2834 S ||1.9075 M ||118.50 P ||1.2625 S |
|1.2763 M ||1.8920 S ||118.30 M ||1.2570 M |
|1.2722 ||1.8847 ||118.05 ||1.2470 |
|1.2630 P ||1.8713 S ||117.32 M ||1.2370 M |
|1.2570 K ||1.8663 M ||116.06 T ||1.2287 S |
|1.2450 M ||1.8601 K ||115.56 S ||1.2187 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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