Wednesday October 4, 2006 - 13:06:17 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Monthly Forex Poll Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the USD against the EUR turned negative. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.2809 from 1.2735 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (September 2 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2740.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) turned more positive the EUR/USD to 58 from 45 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned higher to 116.16 from 115.40 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 117.65. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned more USD bearish. It was 41 after 48.
Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $63.17 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $65.87 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked if they expected the Fed to reduce its Fed Funds target to 5.00% at its January meeting. 70% said no while 30% said yes.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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