Thursday October 5, 2006 - 08:42:18 GMT
Share This Story
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
â€˘ Retail sales in the dozen nations sharing the euro rose for a sixth month in September. (Bloomberg)
â€˘ OPEC has agreed informally on the need to cut output by at least 1 million barrels a day to keep the price of its crudes above $50-$55. (FT)
â€˘ Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said on Thursday he had no preset idea about the timing of the central bank's next interest rate increase, adding that future policy moves would be made gradually. (Reuters)
â€˘ The current fast pace of world economic growth may be unsustainable, but expansion in Europe and emerging markets is likely to offset a U.S. slowdown, the head of the Bank for International Settlements said on Wednesday. (Reuters)
â€˘ Key Reports (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims: For Sept 30 Wk. Previous: -6K.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. For Sep 23 Wk. Previous: -0.9%.
7:00 a.m. BOE Rate Announcement
7:45 a.m. ECB Rate Announcement
"To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow; a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
FX Trading â€“ dawg-mat-ik rambling
1. Relating to, characteristic of, or resulting from dogma.
2. Characterized by an authoritative, arrogant assertion of unproved or unprovable principles.
What comes to mindâ€¦
â€˘ Global Warming
â€˘ Peak Oil
â€˘ Commodities Bull Market
â€˘ Dollar Bear Market
We need to have conviction (a firm belief) to hold an investment positionâ€”is it the same as being dogmatic?
But to survive in leveraged markets we also need to be open and flexibleâ€”and be able to jettison our â€śviewsâ€ť when events or price action proves us wrong.
However, I run across people everyday that canâ€™t seem to shake their dogmas or convictions regardless of price action, or inconvenient truths.
The market is wrong: Gold prices â€śhaveâ€ť to go up
The market is wrong: There is no way the Dow â€śshouldâ€ť be making a new high
The market is wrong: The dollar â€śmustâ€ť fall because the deficit keeps growing
The market is wrong: Doesnâ€™t it know about â€śpeak oilâ€ť?
Well, maybe the market is wrong. And maybe all prices are flawed. After all, prices are set by market participants based on flawed future expectationsâ€”which are based on dogmas and convictions.
A vicious circle of reason indeed! Is it any wonder why angst (a feeling of dread, anxiety, or anguish) is so prevalent among investors?
Itâ€™s never easy. And we all get it wrongâ€”way to often. But, we canâ€™t abandon rational analysis [which is based in logical thinking which is marked by an orderly, logical, and aesthetically consistent relation of the parts] or jettison conviction; otherwise weâ€™d never speculate in the first place. We just need to understand that no matter how much conviction we have, events may prove us wrong.
After all, not long ago, the world believed all swans were white; then the world discovered Australiaâ€”and a black swan.
Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Black Swan Subscription-based Service
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."