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Thursday October 5, 2006 - 08:42:18 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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dawg-mat-ik rambling

Key News
• Retail sales in the dozen nations sharing the euro rose for a sixth month in September. (Bloomberg)
• OPEC has agreed informally on the need to cut output by at least 1 million barrels a day to keep the price of its crudes above $50-$55. (FT)
• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said on Thursday he had no preset idea about the timing of the central bank's next interest rate increase, adding that future policy moves would be made gradually. (Reuters)
• The current fast pace of world economic growth may be unsustainable, but expansion in Europe and emerging markets is likely to offset a U.S. slowdown, the head of the Bank for International Settlements said on Wednesday. (Reuters)
• Key Reports (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims: For Sept 30 Wk. Previous: -6K.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. For Sep 23 Wk. Previous: -0.9%.
7:00 a.m. BOE Rate Announcement
7:45 a.m. ECB Rate Announcement

Quotable

"To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow; a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing."

--From Macbeth

FX Trading – dawg-mat-ik rambling

dog‧mat‧ic 

1. Relating to, characteristic of, or resulting from dogma.
2. Characterized by an authoritative, arrogant assertion of unproved or unprovable principles.

What comes to mind…

• Global Warming
• Peak Oil
• Commodities Bull Market
• Dollar Bear Market

We need to have conviction (a firm belief) to hold an investment position—is it the same as being dogmatic?

But to survive in leveraged markets we also need to be open and flexible—and be able to jettison our “views” when events or price action proves us wrong.

However, I run across people everyday that can’t seem to shake their dogmas or convictions regardless of price action, or inconvenient truths.

The market is wrong: Gold prices “have” to go up
The market is wrong: There is no way the Dow “should” be making a new high
The market is wrong: The dollar “must” fall because the deficit keeps growing
The market is wrong: Doesn’t it know about “peak oil”?

Well, maybe the market is wrong. And maybe all prices are flawed. After all, prices are set by market participants based on flawed future expectations—which are based on dogmas and convictions.

A vicious circle of reason indeed! Is it any wonder why angst (a feeling of dread, anxiety, or anguish) is so prevalent among investors?

It’s never easy. And we all get it wrong—way to often. But, we can’t abandon rational analysis [which is based in logical thinking which is marked by an orderly, logical, and aesthetically consistent relation of the parts] or jettison conviction; otherwise we’d never speculate in the first place. We just need to understand that no matter how much conviction we have, events may prove us wrong.

After all, not long ago, the world believed all swans were white; then the world discovered Australia—and a black swan.

Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Black Swan Subscription-based Service

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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