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Thursday October 5, 2006 - 09:06:20 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Euro slipped against the Yen and Dollar before widely expected ECB rate rise.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Euro slipped against the Yen and the Dollar yesterday as investors took early profits before a widely expected interest rate increase by ECB later today. ECB must raise rates to 3.25% to keep control on inflation and dealers are mainly waiting comments on future rate hike ECB from President Jean-Claude Trichet. Despite some weak economics surveys lately, the Dollar gained after ADP Employer Services report showed US private employers added 78k jobs in September (below forecast). Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday that the US housing market is currently in a substantial correction. But the market was more focus on lower oil prices on Wednesday, which gave some advantages to Dollar. Crude oil prices have returned 25% from record peaks in July, falling bellow $ 58 (7-months low). This is not helping the view of â€śDollar bearsâ€ť which were betting on a rapidly slowing economy and Federal Reserve reaction by cutting interest rates by this year end. The EurJpy hit 150.47 one-month high Wednesday but reversed gains later in the day to 149.73 low. Norwegian Crown was hardly hit by oil trouble and EurNok jumped to its highest since February 2005, 8.4439.
Todays Key Issues:
Mostly awaited; GB Bank of England Rate Decision at 11:00 GMT expected unchanged at 4.75%. EZ ECB Announces Interest Rates at 11:45 GMT widely expected 3.25% vs 3%. US Jobless claims 4-weeks avg due at 12:30 GMT expected 315.5k and continuing claims expected 2450k nearly unchanged.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD continues to trade in a range with the key directional parameters at 1.2834 high and 1.2630 low. We could see weaker Euro; a break below 1.2630 would set the tone for weakness towards 1.2570, and ultimately 1.2450. USDCHF is keeping uptrend following the recent recovery from 1.2293 September low (76.4% retracement of the 1.2183 to 1.2625). A break above last Thursday's 1.2570 high would trigger a fresh assault on 1.2625 and further advance to 1.2800. GBPUSD is running in between 1.8601 / 1.9144 range. A break of either extreme is required to initiate the any new directional move. USDJPY failed again to clear 118.50 trend-line resistance (originating from the 1998 high). A clear break of this level is needed to open the way to 119.40 nest resistance. Minor support is still at 117.32.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.9144 T ||119.40 S ||1.2800 P |
|1.2834 S ||1.9075 M ||118.50 P ||1.2625 S |
|1.2763 M ||1.8920 S ||118.30 M ||1.2570 M |
|1.2716 ||1.8861 ||117.63 ||1.2492 |
|1.2630 P ||1.8713 S ||117.32 M ||1.2370 M |
|1.2570 K ||1.8663 M ||116.06 T ||1.2287 S |
|1.2450 M ||1.8601 K ||115.56 S ||1.2183 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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