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Friday October 6, 2006 - 11:18:37 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• Trichet says little to upset market expectations about ECB tightening.
• EUR-USD still unmoved and an unusual payroll number will be needed to inspire any change.
• EUR-JPY upside risk remains in place.
• UK manufacturing output, Canadian employment also feature.

Market Outlook

Some commentators have tried their level best to read something into yesterday’s comments from Trichet, although more likely is that he had no real intention of changing market expectations. The comments about CPI possibly moving in sustained fashion back below 2% in the next 18-24 months does not necessarily have implications for rates in the months ahead. Such a CPI projection is more a hope or a target. Also, just because Trichet refused to comment about rate prospects in 2007 does not mean to say that the ECB will not be hiking rates in 2007.

Quite simply Trichet probably does not find himself in a position to honestly make such predictions that far into the future. The ECB will continue to take one step at a time but as Trichet said in summing up, “if our assumptions and baseline scenario are confirmed, it will remain warranted to further withdraw monetary accommodation.” That message seems simple enough. A pause may be seen in Q1 to see what happens with regard to the German VAT hike, although Trichet was keen to play down the overall net impact of this event. A further tightening (to 3.75%) in Q2 looks likely and unless credit growth in the Eurozone starts to abate, even that may not be the last.

As has been the case with most other events and releases in recent weeks, EUR-USD was largely unmoved by it all. Today’s US employment report is the next item of importance and this will have to be unusual to change market sentiment. Support at 1.2630-50 – short-term resistance at 1.2765.

Trichet also had very little to say on EUR-JPY, merely referring people back to the comments he made in Singapore i.e. that G7 were agreed that the JPY would eventually reflect Japan’s recovery out of deflation. This still shows some latent concern perhaps about EUR-JPY, although the relevant officials are still not advancing the point that aggressively. Their resolve could be put to the test over the next week or so, with the growing risk of a test of key resistance at 150.75. This needs to break to reintroduce some upside momentum to the move.

Day Ahead
UK– manufacturing output has been exhibiting modest steady growth in recent months and today’s data will need to be surprising to disturb that picture or have an impact on UK rate expectations.

Canada – employment data is out and this has been fairly volatile in recent months. Employment has fallen in each of the last three months by a cumulative 26.1k but this came after a 96.7k gain in May. Furthermore, the full-time employment remains in a solid uptrend once the May spike is stripped out. The CAD has been suffering recently along with lower energy prices and 1.1300 on USD-CAD needs to hold in the short-term to prevent further weakness. Modest downside risk below 1.1240.

US – today’s employment report should once again reveal an outcome consistent with modest growth in labour demand. There is perhaps a slight risk on the downside given the weakness seen in other economic releases, which raises the possibility of employers being more cautious in their hiring decisions. Hourly earnings will also be watched having stabilised at the highs of +3.9% y/y over the past three months.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Manu output (Aug) m/m 09.00 +0.3%
GB Ind prod (Aug) m/m 09.30 +0.1%
GB Manu output (Aug) m/m 09.30 +0.2%
DE Manu orders (Aug) m/m 11.00 -0.5%
CA Employment (Sep) 12.00 +17.5k
CA Unemployment rate (Sep) 12.00 6.4%
US Non-farm payrolls (Sep) 13.30 +120k
US Unemployment rate (Sep) 13.30 4.7%
US Average workweek (Sep) 13.30 33.8
US Hourly earnings (Sep) m/m 13.30 +0.3%
US Consumer credit (Aug) 20.00 +$4.5bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
CH Unemployment rate (Sep, sa) 3.2% 3.3%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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