User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday October 11, 2006 - 10:07:49 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

It can change quickly

Key News
• The European Commission said the economy of the dozen euro nations is slowing more than it previously estimated and may even stagnate in the first three months of next year. (Bloomberg)
• The U.S. Federal Reserve is prepared to raise interest rates again if it appears that it hasn't done enough to curb inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said Tuesday. (WSJ)
• Key Reports (WSJ):
7:00a.m. MBA Refinancing Index.. Previous: +17.5%.
2:00p.m. FOMC Minutes.


"Run for your life from any man who tells you that money is evil. That sentence is the leper's bell of an approaching looter.”

Ayn Rand

FX Trading – It can change quickly

The bond market seems to be reflecting the change in expectations about the US economy from dire bearish on the housing background to modestly bullish on jobs and the consumer. It’s always surprise how quickly flawed future expectations can swing in markets. Which of course begs the question: Are modestly bullish US economic expectations flawed?

This recent view from Morgan Stanley’s Richard Berner, is a good one for cautious optimists on the US economy (a camp we find ourselves in):

[Our emphasis added]

In addition, the outcome of the housing-wealth consumer spending debate is still critical to the outlook. In that regard, we continue to think that the deceleration in home prices will be far less severe than feared. And we believe that the link between housing wealth and spending is only one-fifth or even one-tenth that envisioned by the pessimists.

In contrast with conventional views, however, we think that the list of positives for growth is beginning to grow stronger. First, we expect that a powerful surge in discretionary income will lift spending, courtesy in part of the recent plunge in energy quotes that is adding to consumer discretionary spending power. Pump prices don’t yet completely reflect the 75-cent/gallon slide in wholesale gasoline quotes, but with WTI quotes hovering at $60/bbl and crack spreads narrowing dramatically, there is room for further declines to about $2.25/gal. The gasoline price drop alone would give consumers up to $100 billion in discretionary wherewithal, compared with the August peak. And the slippage in natural gas and heating oil quotes could knock $20-30 billion from winter heating bills, even if winter weather returns to normal following last year’s unseasonably warm winter.

Equally, recent data give us even more confidence that the economy’s job and income generating capacity has improved. Job gains were tepid in September — payrolls rose by just 51,000 — but faulty seasonal adjustment issues may have artificially depressed government and private education payrolls. In addition, the August job tally was revised up by 66,000, bringing the average monthly job gain in the summer quarter to 121,000. That’s far from strong but enough to produce moderate gains in wage and salary income…While any upward revisions to job growth won’t by themselves affect official income estimates (statisticians update income estimates with a quarterly tally of wages that is close to the benchmark population count), faster-than-expected past payroll gains hint that any pickup in economic growth will concurrently boost jobs and thus pay.

Third, easier financial conditions are increasing financial wealth and enabling consumers to refinance debt on attractive terms. Since July, broad indexes of stock prices have risen by 6% or more. Over the same period, the 60 basis-point slide in bond yields, especially because it has been associated with a drop in term premiums, has also added to financial stimulus. Benchmark swap and credit spreads tightened roughly 10 bp over the same period. And there is no sign that lenders are tightening credit availability. Finally, still-healthy overseas demand seems likely to lift US exports. Solid gains in surveyed export orders and in capital goods bookings hint at improving demand both overseas and at home.

Berner’s view may be flawed, but we think it’s as solid as what we’ve seen based on the facts we choose to see.

The dollar is looking a bit “overbought” near-term. But overbought and oversold are nebulous terms chartists like to throw around. Looking at open interest levels on the CME suggests positioning is fairly light in the currencies—suggesting plenty more dollar buying power should the market come to the conclusion that a real trend is underway. Talk about potential flawed expectations—defining a trend is this market is a whole new bad of worms. For now, it appears the range is still alive, based on the daily chart of the $ Index below. But, never say never when human emotion is the key driver. It can all change very quickly.

Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Black Swan Subscription-based Service


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105