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Wednesday October 11, 2006 - 11:22:34 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD-JPY still holding shy of 120...
• RBA’s Stevens’ comments reflect a “wait and see” stance
• US FOMC minutes for last meeting due…
• Trichet was slightly hawkish, BoE’s King slightly dovish for the short term at least…

Market Outlook

USD-JPY worked lower in early London trading, backing off from the 119.80 high hit after Japan’s NHK reported that the government was checking whether North Korea had conducted a second nuclear test. The rumours proved untrue and the USD is easing lower, with supports noted at 119.30 and 118.80 on the day. While the recent move highlights risk of a breach of 120 for a challenge on the 121.40 December 2005 highs and potentially 125, this is proving tough in the short term. The market is likely to be easily spooked by any rumours of official meddling or talk about the pace of the JPY decline being too rapid. It is also worth watching the EUR-JPY cross, which thus far is holding below the key 150.75 August high. A break there would add to negative JPY sentiment. For now though, the cross seems to be reasonably comfortable at the 150 zone.

EUR-USD is consolidating higher intra-day, with resistance noted at the 1.2575-1.2585 zone given the initial difficulty in breaking that region on the way down. The bias is on further declines to the 1.2490-1.2470 area later. Trichet’s comments were if anything slightly hawkish with repeated references to the “still accommodative” monetary policy. The market seemed to largely shrug off his comments though, still trading in post-payrolls mode, with bets on a rate cut next year being scaled back, which seemed to provide some support for the USD.

The BoE’s Governor Mervyn King speaking at a dinner last night noted that there is less chance of CPI exceeding 3% over the next few months than there had been at the time of the August inflation report. He also noted the impact of falling oil prices on PPI and the expectation that this would filter down to CPI, which means he should not have to write a letter to the Chancellor any time soon. However, he did observe that the MPC remains concerned that wages may not remain subdued and that broad money supply is growing at its fastest rate in 16 years, while consumer spending and output growth returned to trend in the first half of the year. But he stressed his comments were not to be taken as any hint on the outcome of November's policy meeting; the BoE is likely to want to see the CPI and average earnings numbers first. New BoE members Timothy Besley and Andrew Sentance will face questions from parliament on Thursday, giving a first indication of their leanings. GBP/USD slipped to 1.8520 intra-day, with support down to 1.85 likely to be “sticky” in the short term.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is speaking on Economic Conditions and Prospects” at a business conference. So far his comments seem reasonably hawkish, though he has noted that the price data to be released over the next couple of weeks will be key in evaluating the future outlook for interest rates. Stevens has noted that it is puzzling that annual economic growth reportedly slowed to around 2% in Q2, even as employment and tax revenues stayed strong. If the GDP numbers are to believe then “sub potential growth ought, other things equal, to start putting some downward pressure on inflation fairly soon". As yet, Stevens’ comments have had little impact on the AUD-USD, which still seems fairly comfortable holding above 0.7400, reflecting the recent stabilisation in commodity prices. The AUD-NZD cross remains just above 1.12.

Day Ahead
US – The Fed releases the minutes of the last meeting. It seems unlikely that this will do much to alter current thinking on Fed policy, although any reiteration of their dissatisfaction with current core CPI rates should cause the market to further unwind bets on rate cuts early next year.

Canada – New house price data for August is due, the consensus is for a rise of 1.0%, after an increase of 1.1% in July.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA New house prices (Aug) m/m 08.30 +1.0%
US Minutes of Sep 20 FOMC 14.00

Latest data Actual Consensus*
AU Housing finance (Aug) m/m -1.0% -1.0%
DE WPI (Sep) y/y +3.0% +3.4%
AU RBA’s Stevens spks on econ
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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