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Wednesday October 11, 2006 - 14:38:29 GMT
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Forex Market Update: Waiting for the FOMC Minutes

Published: Oct. 11 2006, 13:38 GMT

Waiting for the FOMC Minutes

Markets trade in range with little economic data.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• EuroZone GDP (2Q F) yoy 2.7% vs. 2.6% exp, qoq 0.9% vs 0.9% exp
• US MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 6th) -5.5% vs 11.9% prior

FROM THE MORNING UPDATE
• French Industrial and Manufacturing Production slightly higher than expected.
• Japanese Eco Watchers Surveys improving slightly.
• Swedish Industrial Production and Orders improving a lot.
• Swedish AMS Unemployment Rate (Sep) out at 4.2% vs. 4.3% expected.
• Norwegian CPI figures a lot higher than expected.
• Italian Industrial Production somewhat higher than expected.
• UK Visible Trade Balance (Aug) out at -£6733M vs. -£6200 expected.
• Canadian Housing Starts (Sep) out at 1.1% vs. 0.7% expected.
• US Wholesale Inventories (Aug) out at 1.1% vs. 0.7% expected.
• US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Oct) out at 52.4 vs. 50.5 previously.
• UK Leading Indicator Index (Aug) out at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously.
• US ABC Consumer Confidence out at -8 vs. -13 previously.
• Australian Home Loans (Aug) out at -1.0% as expected.
• Australian Investment Loans (Aug) out at -1.4% vs. -7.2% previously.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• Fed Lacker speaks
• FOMC Minutes
• AU Unemployment

AUD
In the much anticipated first public address since becoming RBA Governor, Stevens openly referred to himself as an inflation hawk. AUD moved slightly as trader began to price in the probability of an additional rate hike in 2006, however most of the market was already positioned. In the subsequent Q&A session Stevens repeated his earlier comments that rate were more likely to go up then down. Overall, the speech reinforced Steven monetary policy position and provided the AUD with base. We expect the AUD to gain despite sliding commodity prices.

Tonight Unemployment figures should show further tightening in the labor market.

USD
The market will be focused on the FOMC minutes this afternoon and Fed Lacker speech. We have been hearing increasing rhetoric regarding upside inflation risk and decreasing concern on slowing growth. This mindset should be reflected in the minutes and will in turn be supportive of the USD.
F
ROM THE MORNING UPDATE
• EurZone GDP
• Fed Bies speaks
• RBA Stevens speaks
• ECB Trichet speaks
• US MBA mortgage applications
• SA Manufacturing Production

USD
After yesterdays strong USD rally, we expect the greenback to firm ahead of today’s FOMC minutes. There is increasing speculation that the minutes will show a greater concern for inflation then the market has originally price in. Remember just a few weeks ago the market was beginning to price in cuts. Now not only doest the probability of a rate cuts (keeping the high yields in the US stable for the mean while) lessen, but should these minutes reflect recent hawkish comments from Fed pres., we could start pricing in an additional hike in 2007….In addition, Fed Lacker, the lone dissenter and perennial hawk, should also aid speculation of further FOMC tightening. We see USD continuing its bullish momentums through Europe and NY sessions.

GBP
Recent string of soft economic data from the UK has made traders reconsider the probability an additional rate hike in Nov. Yesterday BoE Gov King speech (less then hawkish) provided no real insight into the MPC Nov. mind-set but did direct the market to focus on home grown inflation pressures such as wages (rather then imported pressure such as oil). With a light economic calendar for the rest of the week we should see the GBP continue to come under selling pressure.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2543 @ 13:24 GMT)
EURUSD: After yesterdays continued breakout the pair retraced slightly in Asian. Close below the 1.2635-45 support area gives scope for a test of 1.2505 weekly 100 day MA this week and possibly 1.2460 further out which daily base support. For today sell up ticks towards old support 1.2635-45 now intra-day resistance for a break of Friday lows.

Resist.
1.2749
1.2652
1.2594
1.2543
1.2498
1.2459
1.2363
Support

Quoted:
11 Oct 06
13:24 GMT

British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8540 @ 13:24 GMT)
GBPUSD strong break of 1.8600 wave support seems to confirm further downside to come (pair clearly out of bullish channel . For today we remain a seller into rallies towards 1.8640 resistance for a intra-day target of psychological. 1.8500 barrier. Watch for late NY movement.

Resist.
1.8946
1.8768
1.8655
1.8540
1.8477
1.8412
1.8234
Support

Quoted:
11 Oct 06
13:24 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (119.68 @ 13:23 GMT)
USDJPY taking a breather after yesterday strong rally in Asia. Broke major bear trend line resistance from 1998 Friday and the close above, calls for more upside in the weeks to come and target of 121.40 old top from December 2005. For today buy down tick towards 119.00 support for the above mentioned target intra-week.

Resist.
121.21
120.34
120.02
119.68
119.15
118.59
117.71
Support

Quoted:
11 Oct 06
13:23 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Saxo Bank A/S | Smakkedalen 2-4 | 2820 Gentofte Denmark | www.saxobank.com
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12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
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