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Friday October 13, 2006 - 10:09:20 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar inches down on record monthly US trade gap.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar showed little reaction to US economic reports Thursday, trading softly lower from previous days but remaining in narrow ranges in North American session. The deficit widened to $69.86B in August from a revised $68B in July, over all expectations fro a narrowing to $66.7B. This fall was the second consecutive record number mostly because of higher oil prices. But analysts already comment expectations for better numbers in September and October hopping for lower oil prices. Similarly, the Dollar showed little reaction to the release of Federal Reserveâ€™s Beige book which indicated that the US economy continued to expand in September. Some analysts said the Dollar could be ready for a trend reversal but it depends on whether the US retail Sales report provides an impulse. Yesterday Canada released an August Trade report showing trade surplus slightly wider than expected. Eurusd recovered from yesterday 1.2519 low to 1.2567 intraday high. UsdJpy went to the lower end 119.26 after 119.68 high. Gbpusd ended around 1.8600 in daily range 1.8537 â€“ 1.8614.
Todays Key Issues:
Early this morning, BoJ left monetary policy unchanged and kept the overnight call rate at 0.25%. ECBâ€™s Stark gives speech at European Institute in Dublin at 9:30 GMT. CAD New August Motor Vehicle Sales due at 12:30 GMT is expected 3% unchanged. Are due at 12:30 GMT; US September Retail Sales and Import Price Index respectively expected 0.2% unchanged and 0% vs 0.2%. US October University of Michigan Confidence Survey is due at 13:45 GMT expected 86 vs 85.4.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD bearish outlook remains intact following last week break down 1.2570. This reinforced the down-trend could expose further downside towards 1.2450. Next supports are standing at 1.2400 and 1.2266 (50% and 61.8% retracements of the 1.1825 to 1.2980). USDCHF couldnâ€™t break 1.2736 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919) and eased around 1.2680. Break up of 1.2736 is seen as the trigger for additional upside towards 1.2930 (76.4% retracement). Weakness only appears below 1.2400. GBPUSD is testing 1.8601 key level but couldnâ€™t move clearly away. Maintain a negative tone below Monday's 1.8715 top. USDJPY maintains a bullish outlook over Monday's 118.82. Only a break below is required to end the up-trend and cancel expectation of a test of 120.00 psychological resistance. In the case of further advance, expect potential gains 121.40.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.9144 T ||121.40 T ||1.2930 S |
|1.2630 P ||1.8901 S ||120.74 M ||1.2800 P |
|1.2570 S ||1.8715 M ||120.00 P ||1.2736 S |
|1.2558 ||1.8614 ||119.18 ||1.2684 |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||118.83 M ||1.2640 M |
|1.2400 S ||1.8400 T ||118.50 P ||1.2400 K |
|1.2325 S ||1.8090 K ||116.06 T ||1.2287 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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