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Monday October 16, 2006 - 10:04:31 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar rallied helped by strong sentiment survey.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar hit a six-month high against the CHF and near tree-month peak versus the Euro on Friday after a series of US data. The Dollar initially fell after US retail sales fell - 0.4% in September against expected and previous 0.2%. But, the currency quickly reversed losses as traders highlighted the fact that the main reason for the weak overall figure was a drop in gasoline prices. That left the US currency firmer against other major currencies for the second straight week as market sentiment shifted in favor of Dollar and US economy. Later in the day, the Euro dropped below psychological 1.25 level for the first time since mid-July after the University of Michiganâ€™s consumer sentiment index posted a surprising 92.3 against previous month 85.4 and 86.5 market expectation. This two numbers, consumer sentiment and retail sales, combined with the revisions to non-farm payrolls from last week are fully supportive. UsdJpy made new high at 119.89 near the 120 Key technical level. Usdchf was also up at 1.2771, six-month peak. Eurusd felt to 1.2484, breaking 1.2500 Key psychological level, its lowest in nearly three months. UsdMxn lost momentum around high 11.1220 dropping from that point to 11.8770 slicing through supports and trendline without hesitation. Former supports were 11.9600 and 11.8920. It will be likely a test of the next strong support from 10.8275 to 10.8250 level.
Todays Key Issues:
ECBâ€™s President Trichet speaks on Europeâ€™s Economic growth potential and FEDâ€™s Chairman Bernanke speaks to Bankersâ€™ annual convention in Phoenix. Are due at 14:30 GMT; US Oct NY Fed Manufacturing expected 11.5 vs 13.84 and CAD Aug manufacturing shipments expected 0.2% vs 0.8%.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD is approaching on 1.2450 (Jul low) and trendline support; but only a recovery over 1.2570 and ideally above the formerly supportive 1.2630 level would erase the immediate bear tendency. On the contrary; a break of 1.2450 would expose to 1.2400 and 1.2266, the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the 1.1825 to 1.2980 advance respectively. USDCHF is consolidating above the formerly resistant 1.2640 level and remains focus on 1.2930 high target (76.4% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919 decline). GBPUSD is likely to maintain a bearish tone beneath last Monday's 1.8715 high, targeting 1.8490 (61.8% retracement of the 1.8090 to 1.9146) and 1.8340 (76.4% retracement). USDJPY is likely to maintain pressure on the psychological 120.00 level, keeping target for 121.41 (Dec. 2005 peak) thereafter. Intra-day support cuts in at 118.83, last week's low, but a bullish tone remains above 117.40.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.8901 S ||121.40 T ||1.2930 S |
|1.2630 P ||1.8715 M ||120.74 M ||1.2800 P |
|1.2570 S ||1.8601 P ||120.00 P ||1.2736 S |
|1.2492 ||1.8558 ||119.45 ||1.2745 |
|1.2450 T ||1.8490 S ||118.83 M ||1.2640 M |
|1.2400 S ||1.8400 T ||118.50 P ||1.2400 K |
|1.2325 S ||1.8090 K ||116.06 T ||1.2287 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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