User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday October 16, 2006 - 21:30:42 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Dollar Rally Hits Ceiling, Strong US Data Will be Needed to Continue On

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-16-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Rally Hits Ceiling, Strong US Data Will be Needed to Continue On
• British Pound Rallies as Housing Market Continues to Stabilize
• Current Yen Level is Attracting A lot of Portfolio Adjustments

US Dollar

Despite the strength embedded in last Friday’s retail sales report and the non-farm payrolls number the week prior, the dollar has struggled to break its key resistance levels. In fact, a quick survey of the charts will reveal that many of the pairs are in the process of “rolling.” USD/JPY appears to be rolling downwards while the EUR/USD and GBP/USD appear to be rolling upwards. Whether this becomes a true reversal rather than just consolidation will be determined by this week’s reports. We are expecting a great deal of inflation data along with other key numbers. Tomorrow, producer prices, net foreign purchases of US securities, industrial production and the NAHB housing market index are due for release. It is extremely unlikely that the US will be able to escape the softer inflationary pressures that we have already seen in other countries. Producer prices should reverse some of its earlier growth while core price growth should remain relatively limited. The drop in manufacturing payrolls suggests that industrial production could also be weak, but don’t bank too much on that report impacting the dollar because today’s jump in the Empire State manufacturing index should offset any bearish sentiment by leaving the outlook for the manufacturing sector cloudy. What could drive major movements in the dollar besides the PPI number is the net foreign purchases report, which is also known as the TIC (Treasury International Capital flow) report. Last month’s release for the month of July reflected the smallest gain since May of 2005. For the month of August, foreigners are expected to have snapped up $56 billion worth of US investments. The Dow began to really take off in the month of August and we expect the TIC report to reflect active and growing foreign participation. There were a number of Fed speeches today. FOMC member Poole was slightly hawkish on inflation citing more positive inflation data, however Yellen pointed to the slowdown in the economy and reiterated her support for keeping interest rates unchanged. Bernanke has learned from his mistakes and kept to the topic on regulation. Fed Presidents Bies and Stern will be speaking tomorrow, neither of them are expected to touch on the economy or monetary policy.

Euro

The Euro is continuing to hold the psychologically and technically important 1.25 level against the US dollar but only by a very thin margin. The drop in business sentiment as well as Italian consumer prices has limited the currency’s gains against the US dollar. Should US data come in very positive tomorrow, expect the Euro to lose more against the dollar than the British pound. The Eurozone’s consumer price releases due for release tomorrow will confirm that inflation has fallen below their 2 percent target while the ZEW survey of analyst sentiment is predicted to reflect the tougher economic conditions that the August rate hike and upcoming German VAT tax increase will pose to the economy. The prospect of another rate hike later this year should also keep sentiment negative. The members of the European Central bank however are not as bearish, which means that unlike the case where Euro rallies can be very sharp, Euro weakness will probably be choppy.

British Pound

The British pound continues to benefit from a stable and improving housing market and merger and acquisition related flow. The Rightmove house price index released overnight reported a sharp 2.0 percent rise in prices during the month of October. With the market trying to calculate whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates again this year, the latest housing market report is another check mark in the yes group. UK water company Thames Water is also up for grabs with an Australia bank winning the bid to buy the company for a deal valued at GBP 8 billion, which will have positive ramifications for GBP/AUD. Meanwhile the FTSE also hit a five year high, which is helping to boost confidence in the British pound. Looking ahead, like its peers, the UK is due to release inflation reports tomorrow. Inflation rates in the UK remain very high with an annualized rate of 2.5 percent. Only a slight moderation is expected, which is one of the main reasons why the BoE could still consider raising interest rates again this year.

Japanese Yen

The biggest news today was yen related. Russia announced that it plans to diversify a portion of its reserves into the Japanese yen, sending all of the yen crosses lower. As a major holder of foreign exchange reserves, Russia’s decision brings the topic of reserve diversification back into play. The country previously increased its share of Euros and are now boosting its holdings of yen. Both of these changes will and have been made to the detriment of the US dollar and we expect that many other central banks are considering doing the same, if they have not already done so, especially as the yen trades at such cheap levels. In fact, companies are also taking advantage of the current yen levels to adjust risk. Life Insurance company Sumitomo announced last Friday that they have reduced their hedged foreign bond holdings by USD 3.77 billion over the past 5 months. The have reinvested the money into yen bonds and will only be looking to buy dollar denominated bonds when the yen rises to 110 against the US dollar. Sumitomo’s decision may also reflect an internal opinion that the yen may rise. If they believe this, it would be smart to cut dollar holdings at this point because even if they earned income on the US dollar hedges, the income would be eroded if the US dollar depreciated in value when they converted the investment back into Japanese Yen. The current yen value against both the US dollar and Euro are at points that may attract a lot of portfolio adjustments on behalf of central banks, corporations and individuals.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105