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Tuesday October 17, 2006 - 10:22:54 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar fell as Russia Central Bank started buying Yen for its reserves.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar fell on Monday as Investors took profits from last week sharp gains. Also, as the Fed provides very little new comments on outlooks for the economy; some trader squared part of their Dollar positions in front of inflation data this week. Following recent decline in Oil prices, we could bet on softer inflationary data. Coming US CPI on Wednesday may show less pressure on inflation. Better data will bring back positive sentiment on Dollar and question about possibility of a rate hike early next year. Alexei Ulyukayev, Russiaâ€™s first deputy central bank chairman said on Monday the bank had started buying Yen for its reserves willing to bring its reserves from 0 to several percent. This announcement clearly spokes to speculative investors who had build extremely large position against the Yen. Yesterday Ben Bernanke speech on banking regulation didnâ€™t included comment on monetary policy. Eurusd was up 1.3% at 1.2546 from Friday low 1.2484. UsdJpy was down 0.7% at 118.95 from 119.81 yesterday high. GbpUsd was only up 0.5% at 1.8624 from 1.8524 low and intraday high 1.8648.
Todays Key Issues:
Are due at 8:30 GMT; GB September CPI is expected 0.1% vs 0.4% (MoM) and 2.4% vs 2.5% (YoY), GB September Retail Price Index is expected 0.2% vs 0.4% (MoM) and 3.4% unchanged (YoY). Are due at 9:00 GMT; Euro-Zone October ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected -11 vs -10.2, Euro-Zone September CPI is expected 0.0% vs 0.1% (MoM) and 1.8% vs 2.3% (YoY), Euro-Zone August Industrial Production is expected 1.3% unchanged (MoM) and 4% vs 3.2% (YoY). Is due at 12:30 GMT; US September PPI expected -0.6% vs 0.1% (MoM) and 1.7% vs 3.7% (YoY). CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision at 13:00 GMT expected unchanged at 4.25%. US September Industrial Production is due at 13:15 GMT expected 0% vs -0.1%. US October NAHB housing market Index is due at 17:00 GMT expected unchanged at 30.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD is still expected to clear support at 1.2450. For now it maintains a bearish tone with a small recovery above Friday's 1.2490 close. A move above 1.2630 former support is required to offset the immediate bear threat. On the other way, we expect a break of 1.2450 will expose 1.2400 and 1.2266 (respectively 50% and 61.8% retracements of the 1.1825 to 1.2980). USDCHF remains solid above the 1.2640 former resistance, still looking at 1.2930 (76.4% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919). GBPUSD is likely to maintain a bearish tone under last Monday's 1.8715 high, targeting 1.8490 (61.8% retracement of the 1.8090 to 1.9146) and thereafter 1.8340 (76.4% retracement. USDJPY is likely to maintain pressure on the psychological 120.00 Pivot point, but recent development down put minor support at 118.80 (Monday's low). USDCAD remains strong above 1.1222 Pivot point and could extended upside towards 1.1460 (Jul high) and area of the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1774 to 1.0929 decline, which my open the door for the gateway to 1.1575 (76.4% retracement).
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.8901 S ||121.40 T ||1.2930 S |
|1.2630 P ||1.8715 M ||120.74 M ||1.2800 P |
|1.2570 S ||1.8601 P ||120.00 P ||1.2736 S |
|1.2526 ||1.8614 ||118.96 ||1.2702 |
|1.2450 T ||1.8490 S ||118.80 M ||1.2640 M |
|1.2400 S ||1.8400 T ||118.50 P ||1.2400 K |
|1.2325 S ||1.8090 K ||116.06 T ||1.2287 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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