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Friday July 30, 2004 - 10:55:17 GMT -

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Forex - US OPEN MARKET POINTS 07-30-04

Wild Week
What’s happening to the FX market this week? UK housing data comes out stronger then expected practically assuring BoE rate hike and cable promptly gets pounded for nearly 200 points. US Durable Goods prints worse then forecast and the greenback barely gives any ground against the euro. Yet, an expected dip in Japanese Industrial Production causes JPY to lose the 110, 111 and the 112 handles – something it hasn’t done since the end of May. Has the currency market come down with the case of cognitive dissonance? Have we completely decoupled from fundamentals? No. The unusual price activity this week has been partly caused by positioning miscues of many market players and partly by the shifting assessment of the most recent fundamental data.

Even after 400 point declines in both EUR and the JPY our latest positioning indicator still shows 2.5:1 EUR longs and 2.7:1 JPY longs (two days ago that ratio stood at unbelievable 5:1 in JPY!). Such poor positioning has led the market to underreact to USD bearish news and overreact to USD bullish data. More importantly, the latest eco data has undercut some of the bullish arguments for the majors. Last night’s GBP reversal, for example, was triggered by a larger then expected increase in UK Consumer Credit Total consumer debt in UK reached 1 Trillion GBP matching the size of UK GDP. The market is worried that additional rate hikes will put an onerous burden on overleveraged UK consumers by increasing their debt service to levels so high as to impede future UK economic growth. In Japan, the latest data presents less then stellar view of economic progress as deflation remains a nagging problem in the latest Tokyo CPI figures and lack of improvement in wages causes surprising decline in household spending. The euro-zone meanwhile carries a more positive tone as German Retail sales finally perk up and EZ Economic survey shows an improvement from last month. Ultimately, however, this powerful USD move will either be confirmed or denied by upcoming US economic data. For the greenback its time to “walk the walk” starting with this weeks GDP and ending with next Friday’s NFP numbers. If USD bulls want to press their case, they will need to beat the numbers, otherwise the dollar rally may grind to a halt.

Key Overnight Developments
- JPY Deflation still problem as Tokyo CPI prints –0.3 vs. –0.1 Workers Household Spending Disappoints –1.3 vs. 2.3
- EUR Positive Data all around; DEM Retail Sales 1.8 vs. .8 Business Climate Indicator .58 vs. .44
FX Spot Overnight
- EUR trades 30 point range to the bull side as eco data prints positive
- JPY finally breaks below 112 as profit taking, calmer crude markets firm currency
- GBP follows EUR for 30 pip up move in absence of UK data
- CHF KOF data fails to impress as previous month revised downward and cross stay moribund at 2780
Upcoming Events
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD GDP (q/q) (Q2 Adv) Expected at 3.7%, Previous 3.9%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Personal Consumption (q/q) (Q2 Adv) Expected at 2.0%, Previous 3.8%
13:50GMT – (9:50 AM EST) USD UMICH Consumer Confidence (July Final) Expected at 96.1, Previous 96
14:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Chicago PMI (July) Expected at 60, Previous 56.4


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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