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Friday July 30, 2004 - 10:55:17 GMT
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Forex - US OPEN MARKET POINTS 07-30-04

Wild Week
What’s happening to the FX market this week? UK housing data comes out stronger then expected practically assuring BoE rate hike and cable promptly gets pounded for nearly 200 points. US Durable Goods prints worse then forecast and the greenback barely gives any ground against the euro. Yet, an expected dip in Japanese Industrial Production causes JPY to lose the 110, 111 and the 112 handles – something it hasn’t done since the end of May. Has the currency market come down with the case of cognitive dissonance? Have we completely decoupled from fundamentals? No. The unusual price activity this week has been partly caused by positioning miscues of many market players and partly by the shifting assessment of the most recent fundamental data.

Even after 400 point declines in both EUR and the JPY our latest positioning indicator still shows 2.5:1 EUR longs and 2.7:1 JPY longs (two days ago that ratio stood at unbelievable 5:1 in JPY!). Such poor positioning has led the market to underreact to USD bearish news and overreact to USD bullish data. More importantly, the latest eco data has undercut some of the bullish arguments for the majors. Last night’s GBP reversal, for example, was triggered by a larger then expected increase in UK Consumer Credit Total consumer debt in UK reached 1 Trillion GBP matching the size of UK GDP. The market is worried that additional rate hikes will put an onerous burden on overleveraged UK consumers by increasing their debt service to levels so high as to impede future UK economic growth. In Japan, the latest data presents less then stellar view of economic progress as deflation remains a nagging problem in the latest Tokyo CPI figures and lack of improvement in wages causes surprising decline in household spending. The euro-zone meanwhile carries a more positive tone as German Retail sales finally perk up and EZ Economic survey shows an improvement from last month. Ultimately, however, this powerful USD move will either be confirmed or denied by upcoming US economic data. For the greenback its time to “walk the walk” starting with this weeks GDP and ending with next Friday’s NFP numbers. If USD bulls want to press their case, they will need to beat the numbers, otherwise the dollar rally may grind to a halt.

Key Overnight Developments
- JPY Deflation still problem as Tokyo CPI prints –0.3 vs. –0.1 Workers Household Spending Disappoints –1.3 vs. 2.3
- EUR Positive Data all around; DEM Retail Sales 1.8 vs. .8 Business Climate Indicator .58 vs. .44
FX Spot Overnight
- EUR trades 30 point range to the bull side as eco data prints positive
- JPY finally breaks below 112 as profit taking, calmer crude markets firm currency
- GBP follows EUR for 30 pip up move in absence of UK data
- CHF KOF data fails to impress as previous month revised downward and cross stay moribund at 2780
Upcoming Events
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD GDP (q/q) (Q2 Adv) Expected at 3.7%, Previous 3.9%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Personal Consumption (q/q) (Q2 Adv) Expected at 2.0%, Previous 3.8%
13:50GMT – (9:50 AM EST) USD UMICH Consumer Confidence (July Final) Expected at 96.1, Previous 96
14:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Chicago PMI (July) Expected at 60, Previous 56.4

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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