User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday October 18, 2006 - 10:38:00 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD struggling to respond to data strength – more EUR-USD consolidation due.
• USD-JPY corrective potential would extend below 118.31.
• GBP and UK rate expectations firmly underpinned by yesterday’s ‘strong’ CPI data – mixed news from today’s labour data/MPC minutes.
• US CPI features today.

Market Outlook

Lots of noise in yesterday’s US data – stronger core PPI, weaker industrial output, rise in the NAHB housing index – but none of it was that significant. The core PPI trend is unclear after recent volatility (one strong month after two weak months), while the NAHB housing rise comes after months of straight-line weakness. Weekly store sales data were actually quite strong and this may raise expectations about lower energy prices boosting retail sales in October.

What is striking so far this week is the USD’s inability to respond to positive data, suggesting that the main thrust of the upmove is over for now. US rate expectations have adjusted to neutral and some excessive EUR-USD longs have been pared back. Some consolidation looks likely in the short-term, but 1.2580- 1.2610 should cap EUR-USD initially. It should bottom out over the next couple of weeks, although there is some uncertainty about whether it needs to dip a little lower first (to 1.2350- 1.2400 rather than the 1.2460-90 area that has held it so far).

Positional adjustment has also been supporting the JPY, with yesterday’s USD-JPY break below 118.80 a significant development. However, the o/n low at 118.31 needs to break to open further short-term corrective risk to 117.40-50. EUR-JPY has some risk down to the 147.70-148.20 area. The JPY was boosted at one point overnight by a media report saying that the BoJ would increasingly monitor so-called JPY carry trades, although the BoJ downplayed the significance of the report. The minutes of the September meeting also reiterated their belief that business investment could become overheated by the low level of interest rates – another sign that they would like to raise rates again by year-end.

GBP remains firm after yesterday’s CPI data, which revealed some worrying trends in some of the core price categories. This morning’s releases have been slightly mixed. MPC minutes serve to underpin the rate hike risk in the UK over the next couple of quarters, although labour market data was softer than expected, with unemployment edging up further and ex-bonus earnings softer (see chart).

There was a 7-2 vote in favour of leaving rates unchanged at the October meeting with the two dissenters arguing in favour of a 25bp rate hike. Of more significance is that these two dissenters also happen to be the two new members of the MPC – Besley and Sentance – and this may leave the market with the impression that the MPC has become a more hawkish entity since their arrival. The minutes noted that for most members the decision had been a finely balanced one. Those in favour of a rate hike argued that since August most evidence had suggested a continuation of above-trend growth and to act on rates now would reduce the possibility of having to make a larger increase later on. They also cited evidence from the Bank’s own regional surveys, suggesting that firms appeared to be more willing and able to increase prices.

Other members agreed with most of these arguments but thought there was no pressing need to raise rates. They also thought that such an outcome would trigger a further rise in overall rate expectations and that the extra degree of tightening this would represent was not currently warranted. Others thought that more time was needed to assess the impact of the August rate rise as well as issues related to pricing behaviour. One (Blanchflower) expected the labour market to weaken further and that the degree of spare capacity was larger than thought back in August. It is the size of this latter camp that is the main issue for those looking for two rate hikes.

However, yesterday’s CPI data is new information for the MPC and may have bolstered the hawkish case. That data needs to be monitored, but as it currently stands the odds in favour of a Q1 rate hike (in addition to a 25bp move in November) have increased significantly and this is something we were not previously factoring in. EUR-GBP looks set to test the downside further in the short-term but 0.6685 (Sept low) needs to break to open risk to 0.6610-30.

Day Ahead
US – the stakes on today’s CPI have been raised a touch by yesterday’s strong +0.6% jump in core PPI, although the latter did come after two very weak outcomes (-0.4% Aug, -0.3% Jul) so the underlying trend is unclear. Core CPI has been softer over the past couple of months at +0.2% after four outcomes of +0.3%. However, it is worth keeping an eye on the breakdown of the data and especially the role played by the controversial “owner equivalent rent” category. This category was a key factor behind the strength in core CPI earlier in the year, but lapsed last month.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

Oil OPEC meeting (2 days)
US CPI (Sep) m/m 08.30 -0.3%
US CPI core (Sep) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Housing starts (Sep) 08.30 1640k
CA Leading indicator (Sep) m/m 08.30 +0.2%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US NAHB housing index (Oct) 31 30
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Oct 15) -7 -8 last
GB MPC minutes (Oct 4-5 meeting) 7-2
GB Claimant count (Sep) +10.2k 0.0k
GB ILO unemp 3m ave (Aug) m/m +45k +93k last
GB Average earnings (Aug) 3m y/y +4.2% +4.4%
GB Earnings ex-bonuses (Aug) 3m y/y +3.6% +3.7%
EU Trade balance (Aug, sa) -€5.5bn -€4.0bn
* Consensus unless stated
(ex-bonuses, 3m y/y)

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105