User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday October 19, 2006 - 21:24:55 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Euro Breaks Out After Surprise Drop in Philly Fed

DailyFX Fundamentals 10-19-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Euro Breaks Out After Surprise Drop in Philly Fed
• CAD Soars as Saudi Arabia Backs OPEC Cuts
• Weak Retail Sales Has Limited Impact on British Pound

US Dollar

It has been an extremely exciting day in the currency markets as the breakouts that we have been waiting for in the EUR/USD and USD/CHF finally materialize. The combination of a weak leading indicator report and Philadelphia Fed survey has sent the dollar tumbling. Leading indicators rose by a less than expected 0.1 percent in the month of September while the Philadelphia Fed survey of manufacturing conditions shocked traders by falling for the second month in a row to a fresh 2.5 year low. With the market accentuating its reaction to negative US data and minimizing its reaction to positive data, the double blow from today’s reports was exactly what the EUR/USD needed to break higher. As we have warned yesterday, the tight consolidation that we have been seeing foreshadowed a sharp break. Although the US dollar could recuperate some of its losses with no data is due for release tomorrow, 1.25 in the EUR/USD has become a hard cement floor that is be extremely difficult to break. The recent reports that we have seen suggest that we could still see slowing in the US economy over the next few months, with the manufacturing sector particularly vulnerable. Even the first ever close above 12,000 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to help the US dollar. Instead, traders latched onto the Saudi and Venezuelan support of the recent OPEC cuts and warning of more to come if oil prices do not budge by sending the Canadian dollar to the highest level in a week. If oil prices creep back above $60 a barrel, it will be perceived as a negative development for the US and in effect, create more downward pressure on the US dollar.


After being yesterday’s quietest currency pair, the EUR/USD was the day’s second biggest market mover, behind USD/CHF. European economic data was disappointing this morning, but that did not matter as the disappointments in the US were even more unexpected. Producer prices in Germany fell 0.3 percent in the month of September, led by the drop in energy prices. The French current account deficit was also larger than expected, but the real surprise was from Italy. Even though industrial orders were stronger in the month of August, rating agency Fitch downgraded Italy’s credit rating from AA to AA minus with a negative outlook. They were worried about growth and the strains the country would have to undergo to bring down the deficit. Despite the rather grim reports, ECB members continue to be very hawkish as council member Gonzalez-Paramo reiterated the central bank’s familiar message of keeping a tight leash on inflation today. We are certain that the central bank will bring rates up by another quarter point by year end, especially with the recent weakness in the Euro making it easier for the central bank to tighten monetary policy. The only question is, will there be more after that. So far, economic data suggests otherwise, but it is all dependent upon whether inflation picks up in the months ahead.

British Pound

The British pound extended its gains after a brief pause yesterday despite mixed economic data. Retail sales took a turn for the worse and actually fell by 0.4 percent in the month of September. The market was looking for a 0.4 percent rise given the strength of recent economic data, but with wage growth squeezed by rising inflation, consumer spending was not able to hold up. Although the index is generally volatile, the recent surprise rate hike by the central bank appears to have hurt consumers. We are expecting the first release of third quarter GDP tomorrow and judging from today’s report, growth should have slowed in the third quarter. Yet not all news was bad news. Money supply as well as public finances and borrowing all increased more than expected in the month of September. One retail sales release is not enough for us to back away from the more optimistic outlook that we have had on the UK economy as of late.

Japanese Yen

Unsurprisingly, the performance of the Japanese Yen has been very mixed today. There was no economic data released last night and only comments from Bank of Japan Governor Fukui who said nothing interesting about the economy or monetary policy. He will be speaking again tonight and we expect the same sort of message from the central banker. Traders are still worried about the potential for another nuclear test by North Korea. This worry is becoming more real as South Korea warns of another 3 to 4 nuclear test from now on. China has also condemned the tests and it appears that they too are putting pressure on North Korea to not add fuel to fire that is brewing in the global community. Meanwhile Japan has reported the third consecutive week of net foreign inflows, which is not surprising given the recent “cheapness” of the yen. We suspect more investors are looking to join Russia in adding to yen exposure over the next few months. However further gains in USD/JPY will be contingent upon more dollar weakness than yen strength at this point.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105