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Friday July 30, 2004 - 13:31:15 GMT
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Daily Forex Commentary by Global Forex Trading

Daily Commentary By Cornelius Luca, forex analyst, Global Forex Trading
(source: http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=7302004)


The dollar weakness versus the European currencies lasted very little and then it resumed its strong gains across the board. Some profit taking may be in order on the last day of the month, but the momentum remains positive for the dollar. There is a busy economic agenda on Friday, and the indicators that can impact the FX market are: the GDP, the University of Michigan survey and the Chicago PMI.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar managed to trim losses on Thursday after marking a fresh 1 -month low of 1.1990, and while it formed another potentially bullish reversal signal on the daily candlestick chart, the pair remains under selling pressure.

Below 1.1190, the pair has support at 1.1952 level. Further support lies at 1.1893. Distant support remains at 1.1771.

A break above 1.2100 would signal a more significant recovery and a rally to the resistance at 1.2150. The euro/dollar would then target 1.2200. A further upmove to 1.2265 is less likely on Friday.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen surged for the third consecutive day to reach a 2-month high of 112.46. This strength padded the general bullish momentum.

Key resistance now comes at 112.90 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 113.40 and 112.40. A rally to the distant 50% Fibonacci retracement of April 1995 August 1998 uptrend at 113.94 is unlikely/

Key support now moved up to 111.60 from the 50-point pivot that targets 112.10 and 111.10. Further support remains from the Fibonacci retracement level at 110.95. If the sell-off accelerates, then look for a decline to 110.50.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar sank to a new one-month low of 1.8083 on Thursday before trimming losses. While a recovery would be in order for today, the general sentiment remains negative.

Any short term-recovery should test the resistance at 1.8250, and if the recovery picks up momentum, the pair will test resistance at 1.8300. A run to 1.8392 is unlikely.

Below 1.8125, support comes at 1.8083. Pivotal support remains at 1.8010.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc marched further up on Thursday to reach a fresh two-month high of 1.2840. The sentiment remains positive, despite a possible profit taking slip

There is initial support at 1.2765. A further decline would then mean that the dollar/Swiss franc will fall to test the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2713. A decline to the 1.2600 area is unlikely today.

If this rally resumes, then the pair will test the resistance at 1.2971 and a break would target the distant 1.3085 level.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




 

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