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Monday October 23, 2006 - 11:05:25 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• JPY softer in Europe – 119.25 needs to break on USD-JPY to truly reinvigorate weak JPY sentiment.
• EUR-USD range trading likely ahead of FOMC outcome.
• SEK up ahead of Thursday’s Riksbank meeting, but a major advance will require a hawkish message.
• Canadian retail sales the only data feature today.

Market Outlook

The USD-JPY move back above 118.50 on Friday has set it up for further gains this morning, with the 119.25 level currently under threat. A move above there would reopen the risk of another test of the recent high at 119.87. Net spec JPY shorts on the IMM narrowed to 112,578 (as of last Tuesday) from the record 123,598 seen the previous week. This remains an excessive number and will continue to constrain upside on USD-JPY and EUR-JPY. Friday’s Japanese CPI data will be significant in determining where the JPY eventually moves.

Spec EUR-USD net longs also narrowed to 26,592 from 36,528 and while these may have been rebuilt a little on Thursday/Friday, the EUR has fallen back again this morning. Last week’s price action was essentially an exercise in stabilisation and consolidation after the losses seen over the previous two weeks and significantly EUR-USD was unable to make its way back above 1.2630-50 – the initial breakout point on the downside. Fed policy expectations have been put on a more even keel and whether the pendulum swings back any further i.e. to fresh tightening expectations, will in part depend upon the week’s data (GDP being the main feature) and the FOMC policy statement, which should be mildly hawkish. 1.2630-50 remains key resistance, while initial support is now at 1.2530 ahead of the key 1.2460-90 area. Major moves are unlikely ahead of the FOMC statement on Wednesday – existing home sales (also Wednesday) are the only significant data item ahead of the Fed. The German IFO number is also on Wednesday.

The SEK advanced well on Friday with the market perhaps eyeing this week’s Riksbank meeting. While a 25bp rate hike and steady policy message seem likely, there is perhaps some apprehension about the possibility of a more hawkish message, given that this is also an Inflation Report occasion. Downside on EUR-SEK is favoured eventually in the months ahead, but key support at 9.13-9.16 will be difficult to break at this attempt, unless there is an indication of a faster pace of tightening.

Day Ahead
Canada – retail sales data should have bounced back further in August. May and June data had been depressed by consumers deferring spending until after the July 1 sales tax cut. Sales duly bounced back in July and should have done so further in August. Any weakness in August would fuel suspicions about softer growth in Canada. Support on USD-CAD is at 1.1200-05.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Retail sales (Aug) m/m 08.30 +0.8%
CA Retail sales ex-autos (Aug) m/m 08.30 +0.3%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
AU PPI output (Q3) q/q +1.0% +0.8%
AU PPI output (Q3) y/y +4.0% +3.8%
* Consensus unless stated
06.05 EDT Monday October 23 2006
2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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