User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday October 24, 2006 - 16:45:06 GMT
FX Solutions -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Market Directions October 16-20

The Week in Review

It is clear that though US statistics of late have made the case for a stronger American economy much more credible there is as yet little market appetite for driving the Usd beyond the lower limit of the current trading range. The Dollar made three weak attempts on the six month Euro bottom (1.2460) this past week but there was no weight behind the push, no stops were triggered, and the lows could not be sustained. On Thursday and Friday the Euro returned to the well trodden ranges above 1.2600 largely on the back of position squaring after the downside failure.

This week also saw the beginning of market speculation on the possibility that the ECB will join the Fed and suspend rate increases. Both the Wall Street Journal and Market News International published pieces positing the potential for an ECB rate pause in the New Year. The WSJ piece on Tuesday outlined the case for an ECB pause, mentioning Germany’s spending tax hike, lower oil prices and the idea that Europe’s heavily regulated and unintegrated economy cannot grow as fast as the its American competition. Other considerations lending themselves to an ECB pause are the effect on a higher Euro on exports to the US and Japan, high German and French unemployment, Merkel's weak coalition government in Germany and the 2007 French elections. Politicians in Germany and France need continued economic growth and as many jobs as can be generated. Some in France have blamed the recent domestic unrest on the lack of employment among French youth, particularly minority youth. Unemployment among young French workers is much higher than the countrywide rate. With long term European growth near 2%, adequate job creation is one of Europe’s biggest economic problems. Speculation about an ECB rate pause, however, is ahead of the game, as the Journal noted. No ECB official has yet mentioned it publicly and Trichet has consistently refused to be drawn into a statement on policy in 2007, saying only that conditions will determine bank actions. But with the US Federal Reserve firmly on hold and with recent US statistics supportive of Bernanke's cautious policy, market interest will naturally turn to the ECB’s possible moves in 2007.

As of yet the American mid term election is generating little currency related talk. With the Fed widely seen as the main arbiter of international Dollar relations no policy change is expected regardless of election results. One cautionary note, if the Democrats assume control of both houses of Congress the potential for political and policy gridlock in Washington increases dramatically. Disunity and conflict in the American government will not, in the long term, favor the Usd. An interesting comment on the difference between European and American policy makers was the unnamed ECB official who characterized projected European growth in 2007 of 1.8%-1.9% as “good”. A sub 2% growth rate in the United States would not be a cause for cheer.

Economic Releases October 16-20:

United States:
The decline in the produce price index released on Tuesday at -1.3%, almost twice the market consensus of -0.7%, was largely due to a fall in gasoline prices. The core rose +0.6%, three times the expected rate of +0.2%. The headline monthly CPI number the following day dropped a bit more than was being considered, -0.5% opposed to -0.3%, again due to decreasing gas prices. The yearly CPI number came in at +2.1%. Fed concern will be focused on the core CPI number which at +2.9% is the highest rate in a decade. Balancing these inflation numbers and hewing to the Fed model of the slowing economy were housing permits which at 1.619 million were 6.3% lower than the previous release of 1.722, and the Philadelphia Fed Survey at -0.7% which reinforced the surprisingly weak September number. The August TICS data, a measure of foreign capital flows into the United States, at $116.9 billion, recorded a huge increase over July, $32.9 billion, and set an all time high for capital inflow. The average monthly capital accruing to the US for the first eight months of 2006 has been $70.3 almost the same as in 2005 when it was $69.8 billion. Rounding out the important releases were industrial production at -0.6%, considerably worse than the expected flat number and capacity utilization which also arrived slightly off expectations at 81.9%.

The important European releases were centered on Tuesday. Eurozone September HICP (CPI), at +1.7% (y/y) was an improvement over the previously issued flash number of +1.8%, and a improvement on the August rate of +2.3% and the July rate of 2.4% as well. The German October ZEW economic expectations survey came in at -27.4, below the previous issue at -22. It was the ninth monthly fall in a row; the long term average is +34.3. Fear of the pending 3% boost in the Value Added Tax (VAT) scheduled to take effect in January is now greater than concern about the effect an American economic slowdown could have on German exports. The ZEW current conditions index in Germany rose to +42.9 from September’s +38.9. The ECB remains on track for a further 0.25% rate increase this year, not the least because ECB officials have fostered a near certainly with their rhetoric. If the HICP numbers continue their downward run the ECB could have part of the necessary logic for a suspension of rate hike in 2007.

United Kingdom
The minutes of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with members voting 7-2 for no change in rate policy, were a bit of a surprise, as markets had expected 9-0 in favor. When this hawkish outcome is combined with the GDP numbers, +0.7% q/q and +2.8% y/y, and the CPI release for September, +0.1 m/m and +2.3% y/y, the expectation for an increase following the November MPC meeting remains intact.

The Week Ahead

The case for the Fed rate hold has been proceeding piecemeal, statistic by statistic. Bernanke has said repeatedly that the numbers will bear out the Fed analysis and thus far they have answered; there has been no strong and convincing trend otherwise. Housing has slowed, GDP growth has moderated and inflation has not runoff into the stratosphere, in fact it is barely in the troposphere. What is important to keep in mind is that this all began August 8th, not even three months ago and that inflation number are retrograde; the prices measured are past prices. One side of the Fed prediction has appeared to come true, the economy has begun to lose steam, or at least the housing market has deflated. But the necessary corollary, that the slowing economy will restrain prices has not yet been in evidence.

This week we will see some direct measures of American economic health, with third quarter GDP, Durable Good Orders and new Home Sales on tap. In Europe New Industrial Orders will give a sense of overall Eurozone activity and German IFO Business survey will be carefully watched.

After a brief flirtation with the idea that the Fed would soon begin reducing rates the market has returned to an essentially neutral view. For at least the first quarter of 2007 American rates are expected to continue on hold. US statistics will be interpreted in this light. The idea of a rapidly slipping American economy has been deserted; the market will look to have its new healthier interpretation of the US economy reinforced. As the obverse to an American economy not as weak as anticipated, is the notion that the Eurozone will not prolong its above trend growth into the New Year. Both represent a change in the market assumptions operating since mid summer. Better than expected American statistics, or worse than anticipated European statistics, are likely to give the Usd a greater boost than opposite figures will harm it. The Dollar is more vulnerable on the upside; the market will be looking for proof this week for its good Usd intent.

Key American reports begin on Wednesday with MBA Mortgage Application Index and existing home sales (prior 6.3 million, expected 6.2 million). Both will be scrutinized for signs of the end of the housing downturn. Existing Homes Sales is the more telling number. The Fed begins its scheduled two day meeting Tuesday but expect no comments or news quips from the governors until the rate announcement and accompanying statement is released on Wednesday at 2:15 ET. No rate increase is expected but the press release will be extensively parsed for meaning. Any relaxation of the inflation rhetoric will damage the Usd. Durable goods orders for September on Wednesday are predicted to increase 2.2%, an improvement on the flat reading for August; new home sales will, by consensus, sustain their August level of 1.050 million. As the declining housing sector, has, until this point, been the main proof of the economic contraction analysis, these numbers are largely old news. Weakness in this housing sales number, unless egregious, will be discounted, unexpected strength rewarded. Arriving Friday will be the third quarter GDP number, the median forecast is 2.0%, and chain store prices, with the median at 2.9%. The GDP number will be closely watched, with the above considerations on US growth in play. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number, also Friday, is expected to improve slightly to 92.4; the last two reading were 92.3 and 85.4. Though this is a volatile index, it has lately been looked to for indications of whether the decline in the housing market has affected consumer spending.

Eurozone numbers are light this week. Tuesday new industrial orders for August are released. Median results are expected at +0.9% m/m and 9.8% y/y, which would represent a drop in the month to month numbers, 1.8% at last, and status quo for the yearly, last at 9.7%. As the predictions for fourth quarter 2006 and first quarter 2007 European GDP growth have recently begun to tail off these number have potential to harm the Euro if the come in as expected or worse. The market has not fully priced a Eurozone economy slowing to below 2.0% annual growth next year. German IFO number will be studied for notice on this topic as well. Friday’s money supply growth is a statistic that the ECB has noted on many occasions. At the last release both the year to year and the three month moving average were at 8.2%; median expectations are at 8.0%. German IFO Sentiment and Expectations on Wednesday will be the most closely monitored economic number from the continent this week. Previous figures were 104.9 for sentiment and 98.8 in expectations. Anticipation is for a slight decline in each to 104.4 and 97.9.

Market sentiment has taken the Dollar to near the six month high. The existing scenario pairs a declining American economy with an accelerating Eurozone, backed by an ECB raising rates and the Fed on hold. This week we will get a good indication of how much life is left in that view.

Joseph Trevisani
FX Solutions
Chief Market Analyst


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105