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Wednesday October 25, 2006 - 09:26:54 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar fell a little as Market awaits Fed statement.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar went down in European afternoon session after a mostly steady day. Investors took profit in UsdJpy on 116.60 resistance level as the Yen was breaking higher and the US regional Manufacturing survey came weaker than expected. The Dollar has been climbing for the past two months as data showed US economy to be stronger than previously estimated last summer and recent increase in US Yields because of Federal Reserve reiterated their concern about inflation. The Fed is not expected to make any change to the Fed funds rate of 5.25% after the Federal Reserveâ€™s policy meeting on Wednesday. As usual, analysts will be looking to get few hawks in the Federal Reserve announcement and any modification to the language in the statement. Eurusd traded most of yesterday between 1.2526 â€“ 1.2549 and jumped higher at 1.2580 in European session. Closing US session was around 1.2560. Yen has been subject to profit taking around 119.60 erasing yesterday advance and stepping down to 119.10 before closing the day nearly unchanged at 119.30.
Todays Key Issues:
German October IFO Business climate, Current Assessment, Expectations are due at 8:00 GMT respectively expected 104.5 vs 104.9, 111.5 vs 111.3 and 98 vs 98.9. German October CPI is due at 13:00 GMT expected -0.1% vs -0.4% (MoM) and 0.9% vs 1% (YoY). Most awaited US FOMC Rate Decision due at 18:15 GMT expected 5.25% unchanged. NZD Royal Bank of New Zealand due at 20:00 GMT expected 7.25% unchanged.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD dropped near 1.2521 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2483 to 1.2644). Further profit taking would open the way through 1.2530 and 1.2485 support. On the top, 1.2644 is the nearest resistance. USDCHF is consolidating above 1.2548 low and we could see a new uptrend beyond breaking up 1.2700 to trigger further upside towards 1.2771 and likely 1.2930 (76.4% retracement of the 1.3241 to 1.1919 decline). GBPUSD recovery from Tuesday's 1.8675 low is still in a downtrend below 1.8863. It could be a drop down 1.8674 to retest on 1.8516 this month key level. USDJPY's sell-off last week held above the 117.40 early month support. It again went over 119.20 and tested 116.60 short term resistance level. We are still looking for a new advance on 119.90 â€“ 120 technical and psychological resistance level. This would open the way to 121.40 (last Dec trend). Maintain a bullish near-term sentiment above 118.05.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 K ||1.9075 T ||121.40 T ||1.2930 T |
|1.2700 S ||1.8901 S ||120.00 P ||1.2800 P |
|1.2660 M ||1.8810 S ||119.90 S ||1.2736 S |
|1.2561 ||1.8745 ||119.12 ||1.2670 |
|1.2485 M ||1.8660 M ||118.05 M ||1.2640 M |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||117.40 S ||1.2430 S |
|1.2400 S ||1.8516 K ||116.06 T ||1.2400 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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