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Friday October 27, 2006 - 09:42:21 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar extends losses in technical sell-off.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar accelerated losses on Thursday, as it breached key support levels against the euro and triggered stop-losses. EurUsd rose to three-week highs at 1.2714. Stops have been triggered in 1.2675-80 area allowing it to gain further upside momentum. The Dollar fell for a second straight session after the FOMC comments which showed no changes to its economic outlook for more moderate growth and inflation. The Fed has very much sent the same signal that theyâ€™ve been sending in previous meeting and data has been mixed to softer. After dipping to three-month lows just below 1.2500 earlier this month, the EurUsd has recovered most of Octoberâ€™s losses in the last three trading sessions. GbpJpy made a new 7-year high at 224.40 up 0.5% from 223.37 daily low.
Todays Key Issues:
KOF October Swiss Leading Indicator due at 9:30 GMT expected 2.25 vs 2.32. US 3rd quarter GDP Annualized and Price Index due at 12:30 GMT are expected respectively 2.1% vs 2.6% and 2.9% and 3.3%. US October Final University of Michigan confidence Survey due at 13:45 GMT expected 92.5 vs 92.3.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD surged above the 1.2660 opening the door toward 1.2700 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2834-1.2483 decline). So far, violation of this level has been minimal, but only a move back below the 1.2660 minor support would relieve upside pressure. The next resistance runs from 1.2770 (61.8% retracement of 1.2941-1.2483). EURUSD remains firmer following yesterday's break and 1.2750 is now exposed (76.4% retracement of the 1.2834 to 1.2483 decline) after the 61.8% level already tested. USDCHF broke the 1.2548 (Oct low) and remains vulnerable below it opening the door toward 1.2474, the (61.8% retracement of the 1.2291-1.2771 rise) which could expose 1.2400 Key level. Key resistance is now located at 1.2707 this week high. GBPUSD is consolidating recent gains with scope seen for a climb towards trendline resistance at 1.9030 which would mark an important bullish development. On the downside, look for 1.8674 to provide support. USDJPY's sell-off from 119.67 (weekly high) is pressuring 118.05. Only a break there would reverse the trend and put focus away from the 119.90 (Oct 13) and toward the 117.40.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 T ||1.9075 S ||121.40 T ||1.2800 P |
|1.2880 K ||1.9030 T ||120.00 P ||1.2736 S |
|1.2700 S ||1.8904 S ||119.90 S ||1.2707 M |
|1.2682 ||1.8884 ||118.53 ||1.2541 |
|1.2660 M ||1.8874 M ||118.05 M ||1.2474 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8660 M ||117.40 S ||1.2400 K |
|1.2400 S ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2287 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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