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Friday October 27, 2006 - 10:34:09 GMT
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Forex:Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD pulls back from overnight highs.
• Weak Japanese CPI fails to have lasting impact on the JPY.
• Eurozone money data supports ECB tightening arguments.
• US GDP and Michigan sentiment feature today.
Market Outlook

EUR-USD strength has been maintained overnight but it has retreated from the 1.2715 high seen in the Asian morning. Following yesterday’s move above 1.2650 there is still some upside risk on EUR-USD and 1.2750 could be approached in the short-term, although major USD weakness looks unlikely. There have been several positive developments for the EUR this week, related to stronger than expected German data (CPI, IFO, consumer confidence) and hawkish overtones from ECB officials. This morning’s Eurozone money data was also stronger than expected, with the strong growth rate in lending clear evidence that interest rates are too low. Today’s US data - 1st estimate of Q3 GDP and Michigan sentiment (see below for preview) - will be influential.

The JPY weakened initially in response to softer than expected Japanese CPI data (EUR-JPY briefly made a new high of 150.75) but it has since recovered – another sign perhaps of the positional constraints currently in place on the JPY. CPI was generally disappointing, including a further drop in the y/y rate for CPI ex-food and energy to -0.5% from -0.4%. The only bright spot was the rise in the ex-food and energy rate for Tokyo CPI (to -0.1% from -0.3%) -0.1% matching the seven-year high seen in July. The data presents an uncomfortable background for the BoJ, although given recent comments (stressing the impact that low interest rates may be having on investment expenditure) they may decide to hike rates anyway in December.

Day Ahead
US - Q3 GDP is due and as it is a 1st estimate it carries some extra uncertainty. Anything very strong or weak will affect sentiment about the extent to which growth is moderating, but to some extent the market is already focusing on the likelihood of a pick-up in Q4. At this stage of the cycle it is important to look at GDP ex-inventories. GDP boosted by inventory growth would not necessarily be good news as inventory gains would be seen as involuntary and a sign of weaker demand. Typically this would weigh on orders and output in the subsequent period as excess stock is cleared.

Michigan sentiment could firm up a little further given ongoing weakness in fuel prices and ‘media-headline friendly’ gains in the equity market. This is the backstop to any weakness in housing and manufacturing data. Softer energy prices are providing support for the consumer sector.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US GDP (Q3, 1st est) saar 08.30 +2.0%
US Core PCE prices (Q3) saar 08.30 +2.5%
US Michigan sentiment (Oct, fin) 09.45 92.5

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Trade balance (Sep) -NZ$587m -NZ$860m last
JP CPI Tokyo ex-fresh food (Oct) y/y +0.1% +0.1%
JP CPI Nat ex-fresh food (Sep) y/y +0.2% +0.3%
JP CPI Tok ex-food/energy (Oct) y/y -0.1% -0.3% last
JP CPI Nat ex-food/energy (Sep) y/y -0.5% -0.4% last
JP Retail sales (Sep) y/y +0.8% +1.2%
SE Retail sales (Sep) m/m +0.7% +0.5%
SE Consumer confidence (Oct) 19.5 19.6
EU M3 (Sep) y/y +8.5% +7.9%
EU M3 (Sep) 3m y/y +8.2% +8.0%
EU Private sector lending (Sep) y/y +11.4% +11.3%
CH KOF indicator (Oct) 2.00 2.20
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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