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Monday October 30, 2006 - 11:03:31 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar falls as US growth slows further in Q3.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar fell to a one-month low against a basket of major currencies on Friday after the government reported a slowdown in US economic growth in the 3rd quarter that was more dramatic than expected. US 3rd quarter GDP Annualized confirmed the slowdown in growth with the economy expanding at just 1.6% vs 2.1% survey; the smallest increase in over three years. A strong Consumer Confidence report for October from the University of Michigan has little impact on the dollar. It was a bit better than expected, but seems not enough to reverse the current weakness in the dollar. It came 93.6 against 92.5 expectation and 92.3 previous month. The dollar suffered its largest daily decline in a month against the Yen and hit a three-week low against the Euro. The Fed has been signaling recently that the worst of economic slowdown has passed but analysts warn the market didnâ€™t end the sell-off yet. Last week, the Dollar has been falling since Wednesday, when the Fed kept rates unchanged at 5.25% for the third consecutive meeting and issued a warning statement about inflation pressures and slowing US growth.
Todays Key Issues:
Are due at 13:30 GMT; US September personal Income exected 0.4% vs 0.3%, Personal Spending expected 0.3% vs 0.1%, PCE Deflator expected 3% vs 3.2% (YoY), PCE Core expected 0.2% unchanged (MoM) and 2.4% vs 2.5% (YoY).
The Risk Today:
EURUSD is firmer following last week's recovery. Market has already tested 1.2750 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2834 to 1.2483 decline), a clear break would pave the way for strength towards 1.2880 key level. USDCHF also remains vulnerable following the break below 1.2550 which has exposed 1.2400 next key support. Minor resistance is now located at 1.2707. GBPUSD is constructive following last weeks gains with target seen for a climb towards trendline resistance at 1.9030. A break of that level would mark an important bullish development. On the downside, look for 1.8874 and 1.8660 to provide supports. USDJPY's sell-off from 119.70 (Oct 24 high) has resulted in a break of 118.05. With momentum also providing a bearish sentiment; looking for further USD downside towards at 116.06 trendline support.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 T ||1.9144 K ||120.00 P ||1.2800 T |
|1.2880 K ||1.9075 S ||119.90 S ||1.2736 S |
|1.2750 S ||1.9030 T ||118.05 M ||1.2550 P |
|1.2718 ||1.8984 ||117.48 ||1.2498 |
|1.2660 M ||1.8874 M ||117.40 S ||1.2474 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8660 S ||117.16 M ||1.2400 K |
|1.2400 S ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2287 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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