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Monday October 30, 2006 - 11:18:08 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD looking at ECB meeting, US ISMs.
• Liquidation risk shifts JPY bias.
• UK lending & mortgage approvals solid.
• US core PCE prices feature today – BoJ tonight.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has managed to hold on to most of Friday’s gains, inspired by weaker US GDP and an improved technical backdrop after Thursday’s move above 1.2650. The 1.2750-60 area needs to break to take this to the next level i.e. an approach of the top-end of the broader range at 1.2900-50 and this may prove difficult without some corroborative developments in this week’s news flow. The tone of the ECB meeting and the performance of the US ISM numbers will be critical in this regard. 1.2630-50 is support.

USD-JPY also remains soft after Friday’s plunge through key support at 118.05 (signalling a short-term double top on the chart). JPY bears are on the defensive, with fears high about the possibility of a further liquidation in JPY short positioning. IMM data released on Friday showed that as of last Tuesday net spec JPY shorts widened to a new record of 137,920 from 112,578 the previous week. Tonight’s BoJ meeting and the release of their latest economic forecasts will also be critical in determining rate hike risk. Downside risk on USD-JPY (to 116.10) will remain as long as it stays below 118.00-20.

UK data released this morning showed overall consumer lending (including loans secured on dwellings) remaining firm, while mortgage approvals advanced further, suggesting that the August rate hike has had little impact. This supports expectations for a rate hike next week.

Day Ahead
US – core PCE prices feature in the US. Unless there have been some unusual back revisions to this series, Friday’s data for Q3 suggests that September will be +0.2% m/m. There was a risk of a weaker number given what was seen in the latest CPI release. Core CPI was again +0.2%, but if the shelter category is also stripped out the rise was just +0.1%. This measure has a better correlation with core PCE prices, as the biggest component of shelter is owner-equivalent rents and this has no representation in core PCE prices.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

NZ Business confidence (Oct) 07.00 -28.9 last
US Personal income (Sep) m/m 08.30 +0.3%
US PCE (Sep) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Core PCE price index (Sep) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Core PCE price index (Sep) y/y 08.30 +2.4%
CA Industrial PI (Sep) m/m 08.30 -0.7%
CA Raw materials PI (Sep) m/m 08.30 -4.0%
US Fed’s Lacker spks on policy 08.30
FR Unemployment rate (Sep) 18.00 8.9%
FR ILO job seekers (Sep) m/m 18.00 -20k
JP Unemployment rate (Sep) 18.30 4.1%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (Sep) 18.30 1.09
JP Overall PCE (Sep) y/y 18.30 -2.1%
AU Private sector credit (Sep) m/m 19.30 +1.0%
JP BoJ rate announcement unch
JP Housing starts (Sep) y/y 00.00 +2.2%
JP Small business confidence (Oct) 00.00 50.1 last
JP BoJ monthly report & semi-annual econ outlook 01.00

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Ind prod (Sep, prel) m/m -0.7% -0.9%
NO Retail sales (Sep) m/m +1.7% +0.4%
GB Consumer credit (Sep) +£0.9bn +£0.8bn
GB Net lending sec’d on dwellings (Sep) +£8.9bn +£9.0bn
GB Mortgage approvals (Sep, sa) 126k 118k
* Consensus unless stated
2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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