Tuesday October 31, 2006 - 10:26:54 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Still searching for direction
Tuesday 31 October 2006 5:00 AM EST http://www.blackswantrading.com
Â· Key US Reports (WSJ):
7:45a.m. ICSC-UBS Store Sales Index. For Oct 28 Wk. Previous: -1.1%.
8:30a.m. 3Q Employment Cost Index. Consensus: +0.9%. Previous: +0.9%.
8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index. For Oct 28 Wk. Previous: +1.3%.
10:00a.m. Oct Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Index. Consensus: 108.0. Previous: 104.5.
10:00a.m. Oct Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Consensus: 58.0. Previous: 62.1.
5:00p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Oct 29. Previous: -7.
â€śEvery moment in the market is unique.â€ť
FX Trading â€“ Still searching for directionâ€¦
Does it say more about the euro than the dollar that it canâ€™t seem to muster a rally given the swing in US growth sentiment to negative? It seems fertile ground for the euro to climb, at least near term, if itâ€™s about yield and growth:
1) ECB still talking tough
2) Fed rate expectations tamped down significantly
3) Talk again of cuts by the Fed in early 2007
Taken together, this should raise the prospect of the dollarâ€™s vaunted yield differential shrinking quickly.
Maybe it was a knee-jerk reaction to Fridayâ€™s GDP numberâ€”if so, we plead guilty. We will likely learn that as the week progressesâ€”culminating Friday with the release of the US jobs report for October. We expected much more from both euro and the pound; both SEEMED poised for a breakout out higher, at least on a daily basisâ€¦
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