User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 1, 2006 - 11:37:58 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Yesterday’s EUR-USD move reflects current trading bias.
• US data not that disastrous – ISMs still to come.
• JPY and AUD support shines through current price action.
• CAD hit by change in ‘income trust’ taxation.
• Focus on NOK with Norges Bank meeting due and critical day for oil.

Market Outlook

A strong move on EUR-USD yesterday following the weaker than expected consumer confidence data, but it has not managed to advance any further overnight and some minor weakness to 1.2730-40 could be seen ahead of today’s US ISM number. Consumer confidence falling short of expectations was disappointing, but it is not a major blow as yet. Michigan sentiment last week was stronger than expected, while the latest weekly measure of confidence out last night was at its highest level (-3) since the -3 number also seen in January 2004 (itself the highest since April 2002).

The movement in EUR-USD perhaps owes more to the positivetechnical bias in place since the move back above the pivotal 1.2630-50 area. It is often the case that having failed to break one end of a range, the market is immediately drawn to the other extreme. In the case of EUR-USD this would be the 1.2900-50 area, although such a development will also require some suitable data releases and in itself yesterday’s data is not enough. The ISM surveys today and Friday as well as the employment report will be a more significant indication of how activity is developing.

Yesterday’s USD move did allow some underlying market themes to develop further. One was the position-liquidation support for the JPY - the JPY being better able to sustain the advance against the USD. US data today will be significant for USD-JPY, but ‘short JPY’ liquidation risk will continue to offer support for the JPY in the short-term. The other was the upmove in the AUD, with the USD weakness enabling the AUD to vault above the next resistance area at 0.7700-25. Building approvals data last night were also stronger than expected, adding support to next week’s expectation of a rate hike from the RBA. Retail sales (the last possible barrier to a rate move) is due tonight. Gold is also looking set for a further run higher. 0.7800 is the next target on the AUD.

The CAD has fallen sharply overnight following the announcement from the Canadian government (at 5.00 EST yesterday afternoon) that alters the taxation structure of so called income trusts. Many normal corporations have switched to being income trusts in recent years in order to reduce tax liabilities – payments distributed to unit holders are deducted against tax. However, yesterday’s announcement means that income trusts will essentially be taxed the same as corporations, although for existing trusts this will only be introduced in 2011. For income trusts that begin trading after yesterday’s announcement the rules will apply from next year. Much money has been following those companies that have made the conversion or who have been indicating that they will do so and many such funds will now exit. However, the blow should be slightly softened by the fact that in most cases the measures will only apply in 2011. Furthermore, if Canadian exposure is still desired then the money may be reinvested elsewhere in Canada. Accompanying yesterday’s announcement (termed the Tax Fairness Plan) was a 0.5% cut in corporate income tax (from 2011) and tax breaks (from this year and next) for seniors and pensioners adversely affected by the plan. USD-CAD will probably take its cue from the equity market today and while some initial weakness should be seen a major sustained move looks unlikely. 1.1325 is the first level of importance although a sustained move above 1.1415 is needed to cause lasting damage. Below 1.1285 would prompt a pullback to 1.1245-55.

Day Ahead
Norway – the Norges Bank announce their latest policy decision and with the Inflation Report also due there is a chance of them signalling the possibility of a faster pace of tightening next year. The language used at their last meeting was more aggressive. However, a hawkish statement may be needed to shield the NOK from further problems regarding the oil price. In fact it is also a key day for oil with the latest weekly inventories report due in the US. Last week (the week-ending Oct 20) there was a sharp fall in inventories, although it is generally believed that this was purely related to the 71-hour closure of the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which severely disrupted crude imports. According to officials cited on Reuters, imports were back on schedule by Wednesday last week so the market is expecting a recovery in stocks.

If there is any comfort for the NOK in the latest episode of oil price weakness is that it appears to have prompted less equity outflow from the country (according to our in-house flow data) than was the case earlier in October. The Statoil share price has also been more resilient over the past week or so. Key now will be whether oil can hold recent lows.

US – the ISM manufacturing is due today after the softer 52.9 showing of last month. The tone of this data will be significant for sentiment about the extent of the US economic slowdown and will be important for the USD. Pending home sales are also due having shown some gross volatility in recent months (Aug +4.3% m/m, Jul -7.1% m/m), although the downtrend remains intact. The ADP employment measure may also influence sentiment about the nature of Friday’s payroll outcome.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

EU Holiday in parts of Europe, but most markets are open
NO Norges Bank policy outcome & Inf Report 13.00 +25bp
US ADP employment (Oct) 13.15 +78k last
US ISM manu (Oct) 15.00 53.0
US Pending home sales (Sep) 15.00 -0.9%
US Crude inventories (w/e Oct 27) 15.30 +2.5m
JP Monetary base (Oct) y/y 23.50 -21.8%
AU Retail trade (Sep) m/m 00.30 +0.5%
AU Trade balance (Sep) 00.30 -A$0.2bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US House prices (Aug) y/y +5.2% +6.8%R last
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Oct 29) -3 -7 last
AU Building approvals (Sep) m/m +6.1% +2.2%
CN PMI manu (Oct) 54.7 57.0 last
SE PMI manu (Oct) 60.7 61.0
CH PMI manu (Oct) 62.3 64.0
GB PMI manu (Oct) 53.7 53.8
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105