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Thursday November 2, 2006 - 15:44:33 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (2 November 2006)



The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2775 level and was supported around the US$ 1.2735 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.3480 to $1.1640. Traders await the release of tomorrow’s all-important October non-farm payrolls report with most economists expecting jobs creation of about 125,000. This week’s October ADP jobs report and the ISM employment index data released this week both printed at a good clip and traders this may result in a decent print tomorrow. Traders also want to see if September’s relatively weak print of 51,000 is upwardly revised. Data released in the U.S. today saw the Q3 non-farm productivity up 0%, weaker-than-expected, while unit labour costs were up a heady 3.8%, down from Q2’a 5.4% print. Additionally, initial weekly jobless claims were up 18,000 to 327,000 and September factory orders were up 2.1%. In eurozone news, European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, and ECB President Trichet noted “strong vigilance” is required on inflation. Most traders continue to believe the ECB will lift borrowing costs by +25bps to 3.50% next month. Data released in the eurozone today saw the October PMI manufacturing survey move higher to 57.0, more-than-expected, while German unemployment was off 67,000 in October with the jobless rate coming in at 10.4%. Euro bids are cited around the US$ $1.2710/ 1.2655 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥117.35 level and was supported around the ¥116.65 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥108.95 to ¥119.85. MoF’s Watanabe verbally intervened again, saying there is no reason for the yen to weaken given Japan’s improving economy. Data released last night saw the October monetary base fall for the eighth consecutive month, down 21.3% y/y. Bank of Japan Governor Fukui spoke overnight and dovishly indicated the central bank can afford to spend “ample time” between rate hikes and said the U.S. economy is unlikely to face a recession. BoJ Deputy Governor Muto reported capital expenditures are not overheating but adding policymakers are monitoring upside risks. Japanese financial markets will be closed tomorrow for a national holiday. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.15% to close at ¥16,350.02. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥116.75/ ¥115.70 levels. The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥149.60 level and was supported around the ¥148.85 level. The British pound and Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥222.60 and ¥93.60 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.8735 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 7.8724, and at CNY 7.8740 in the exchange-traded market. The Chinese government predicted 2006 retail sales growth is expected to rise 13.5% to CNY 7.6 trillion. People’s Bank of China advisor Fan Gang noted the economy is consolidating but added overheating remains a risk. PBOC member Su Ning predicted the economy “will maintain a relatively fast and stable growth rate.”



The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9105 level and was supported around the $1.9035 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.8670 to $1.9135. Data released in the U.K. today saw Q3 construction orders off 10% q/q and were up 4% y/y while October construction PMI rallied to 58.1, the highest since March 2004. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.8995/ 60 levels. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6695 level and was supported around the ₤0.6680 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2435 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2475 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw October inflation climb +0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y – the lowest annual price increase since March 2004. Most traders believe Swiss National Bank will lift interest rates by +25bps next month and then pause in their current tightening cycle. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2520/ 70 levels. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5905 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 2.3730 level.

AUD

The Australian dollar came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.7705 level and was capped around the $0.7750 level. Data released in Australia today saw September retail sales up +0.1% m/m while the September trade deficit printed at –A$ 646 million from a –A$ 324 million deficit in August. Australian dollar bids are cited around the A$ 0.7615 level.

CAD

The Canadian dollar extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.1365 level and was supported around the C$ 1.1305 level. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.1450 level.

NZD

The New Zealand dollar gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the kiwi tested offers around the US$ 0.6745 level and was supported around the $0.6700 figure. New Zealand dollar offers are cited around the US$ 0.6870 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the US$ 622.25 level and was supported around the $ 614.20 level. Silver moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested offers around the $12.61 level and was supported around the $12.36 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for December delivery tested bids around the US$ 57.73 level and was capped around the $ 58.75 level. Data released yesterday saw U.S. stocks of gasoline and diesel fuel decline more-than-expected last week. Traders continue to monitor OPEC members to determine if they will live up to their recent decision to curtail production in an effort to keep the price elevated.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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