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Friday November 3, 2006 - 10:56:24 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar was modestly higher despite weak US data.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar ended Thursday slightly higher despite more disappointing US data. There were little reactions to US economic reports yesterday. Factory orders rose 2.1% less than expected 4% and August has been revised -0.3%. Business productivity was flat against a 1.3% expectation and weekly Initial Claims rose 327k faster than 310k forecasted. Sentiment on the Dollar has been damaged in the past week by softer-than-expected US economic data. Today, US Non-Farm payrolls is expected to show 125k jobs added for October, up from 51k in September, but analysts said it would need at least 130k to boost the Dollar. Dollar posted some weakness yesterday after the ECB left its key rate unchanged at 3.25% and the ECBâ€™s President Jean-Claude Trichet indicated the ECB talked about â€śstrong vigilanceâ€ť in maintaining price stability and that it could raise interest rates next month and potentially narrowing the US interest rate advantage. This week, Gold posted very strong strength and erased 603.88 and 607 resistances. Break up of previous levels pushed Gold higher to 625. Focus remains on 631.76, 61.8% retracement of 676.40 â€“ 559.70 decline.
Todays Key Issues:
Are due at 12:00 GMT; Euro-zone September Unemployment Rate expected 7.8% vs 7.9%, CAD October Unemployment Rate expected 6.4% unchanged and Net change 18k vs 16.2K. Are due at 13:30 most awaited figures; US October Change in Non-Farm payrolls expected 125k vs 51k, US unemployment Rate 4.6% unchanged. US October ISM Non-Manufacturing due at 15:00 GMT is expected 54 vs 52.9.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD lost some momentum ahead of 1.2834 and 1.2880 resistances. However, a return below last Thursday's 1.2738 low and further beyond 1.2677 (late October low) is needed to confirm next trend for a deeper tone targeting 1.2450 trendline support. USDCHF has found a base ahead of the key 1.2400 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2291 to 1.2771). Extended gains over Tuesday's 1.2530 high would reinforce the bullish view and pave the way for a move towards 1.2550 resistance and 1.2710, late Oct peak. GBPUSD is holding a bullish stance even turning over 1.9100 these last two days. But even if the upside momentum is slowing; a move down last Tuesday's 1.8958 low could trigger a run back towards the lower end of the range targeting 1.8601 pivot support. A clear jump over 1.9144 is now needed to offset the near-term bear consolidation. USDJPY is consolidation on a range step 116.60 â€“ 117.40. It is not far from 116.06 trendline support. For now and as long as last Tuesday's 118.05 high remains intact, market would focus on the downside.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 T ||1.9220 T ||120.00 P ||1.2800 T |
|1.2880 K ||1.9144 K ||119.90 S ||1.2736 S |
|1.2834 M ||1.9099 S ||118.05 M ||1.2550 P |
|1.2772 ||1.9085 ||117.05 ||1.2455 |
|1.2677 M ||1.9030 S ||117.16 M ||1.2400 K |
|1.2620 S ||1.8874 M ||116.60 M ||1.2287 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2185 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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