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Monday November 6, 2006 - 10:26:21 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar rose after better US Jobs data.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar rose on Friday following a report showing the US economy created more jobs than previously estimated. Augustâ€™s non-farm payrolls data was revised to an increase of 230k jobs from the previously reported 188k. September was also revised up to 148k from 51k and 92k jobs were added in October, compared with a Reuters pool median forecast of an additional net increase of 125k jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in October, the lowest since May 2007, from previous month 4.6%. Some of the recent weeks Dollar decline have been reversed on Friday. The late October run on softer-than-expected US economic data had sent the dollar to one-month lows vs the Euro and Yen and two-month lows against Sterling because of concern that slowing economic growth could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. But Fridayâ€™s numbers supported views that the Federal Reserve will hold is benchmark interest rate unchanged. The EurUsd fell 0.5% to 1.2718. The UsdJpy rose 0.8% to 118 and Gbpusd fell 0.4% to 1.9008. EurJpy rose to 150.19 high on Friday looking at late October 150.76 high. GbpJpy edged up to an eight-year high at 224.60 in front of Bank of England policy meeting this week at which the Central Bank is expected to raise rates to 5% from 4.75%, this would be the second hike this year.
Todays Key Issues:
Euro-zone October PMI Services due at 9:00 GMT is expected 57 vs 56.7. Are due at 9:30 GMT; GB September Industrial Production expected 0.4% vs 0.1% (MoM) and 0.7% unchanged (YoY), GB September Manufacturing Production expected 0.2% vs 0.4% (MoM) and 2.3% vs 1.5% (YoY). Eurozone September PPI due at 10:00 GMT is expected -0.5% vs 0.1% (MoM) and 4.6% vs 5.7% (YoY). At 13:00 GMT, Fedâ€™s Moskow will peak on US Economic Outlook in Chicago.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD only hit 1.2800 last week and this level is now the key short-term resistance where a break is required to confirm a return of Euro strength. A drop below 1.2677 is needed to confirmation a deeper setback through 1.2620 and possible step down near 1.2450. UsdChf has built a solid base ahead of the key 1.2400 level. The break of last Tuesday's 1.2530 high has reinforced the latest bullish view and may leaves the 1.2550 pivot point to drive the way for a move towards 1.2736 strong resistance. Last week, GbpUsd has defined resistance at 1.9144. A drop below Monday's 1.8956 low would suggest a move deeper to the lower end of the range; targeting 1.8675 and 1.8601 pivot level. A recovery beyond 1.9144 is now needed to offset the near-term bear trend. USDJPY has managed to keep a step above 116.06 trendline support and has also broken above last Tuesday's 118.05 former minor resistance. With the Dollar regaining strength across the board last week; we could see a run to 118.50 (61.8% retracement of the 119.67-116.57 decline).
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 T ||1.9220 T ||120.00 P ||1.2800 T |
|1.2880 S ||1.9144 K ||119.90 S ||1.2736 S |
|1.2800 K ||1.9040 S ||118.50 M ||1.2550 P |
|1.2709 ||1.8991 ||118.17 ||1.2547 |
|1.2677 M ||1.8956 S ||118.05 M ||1.2400 K |
|1.2620 S ||1.8874 M ||116.60 M ||1.2287 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2185 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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