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Monday November 6, 2006 - 12:11:32 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD remains firm – slight downside bias today on EUR-USD.
• Few items of interest this week in the US.
• JPY IMM positions cut back sharply.
• Fed speakers due today.

Market Outlook

The USD has retained the firmer tone seen after Friday’s US releases, with both payrolls and non-manufacturing ISM coming in stronger than expected. There is not much to focus on this week, with Michigan sentiment and the latest trade data the only items of interest in the US, so it is difficult see where fresh directional impetus is going to come from. While Friday’s data was solid, it will not be enough to completely eradicate fears of a sizeable slowdown – the weak manufacturing ISM remains in place. The 1.2780-1.2800 area should provide solid resistance on EUR-USD, while a test of the pivotal 1.2630-50 area may be seen initially.

In Europe, USD-JPY has managed to edge through the 118.20 level that held it on Friday and in Asia overnight. IMM data released on Friday showed that as of last Tuesday net spec JPY shorts fell sharply to 59,600 from the record 137,920 seen the previous week (Tuesday was of course the low point for USD-JPY last week). Liquidation pressure seems to have finally had an impact, although the big question now is whether there is more to come. 59,600 is still a sizeable position, although one could argue that the removal of some froth has cleared the decks a little, making it more likely that the JPY will now fall. It is a close call but the move above 118.20 in Europe should prompt some further upside testing today – 118.70 would be the initial target ahead of the 119.25-50 area. Below 117.75 would signal that positional pressures remain intact.

Data this morning included Eurozone PMI services and German manufacturing orders, both of which were weaker than the market had expected. However, the data will do little to disturb market impressions about the solid Eurozone growth backdrop. PMI services (56.5 for the Eurozone) are still healthy, while the 2.5% m/m drop in German manufacturing orders comes after strong gains in recent months. This is well within the bounds of normal m/m volatility for this series and the overriding uptrend remains intact (see chart).

In the UK, there was a reminder of the nagging doubts currently in place about the manufacturing sector after the official manufacturing output data fell short of expectations. This comes after the recent soft showing in the CBI manufacturing survey and the slightly softer PMI number. The data should not threaten Thursday’s anticipated 25bp rate hike and with that move largely discounted the main focus will be on what the MPC signals about rates in the months ahead. This may not become clear until next week’s Inflation Report.

Day Ahead
US – Fed speakers are due today – Moskow and Pianalto – and both are due to speak on issues the market will be sensitive to. Moskow speaks on the economic outlook and Pianalto talks about policy and the economy. However, given the unevenness in some of the recent data it seems unlikely they will veer too far from the central message of the latest FOMC meeting i.e. that growth seems to be moderating and that CPI should eventually follow suit, but that until it does they must be wary of inflation risk.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Fed’s Moskow speaks 08.00
CA Building permits (Sep) m/m 08.30 -3.5%
CA PMI (Oct, nsa) 10.00 57.0
US Fed’s Pianalto speaks 18.30
GB NIESR GDP (3mths to Oct) q/q 19.01 +0.8% last
US Fed’s Yellen speaks 19.10

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Labour cost (Q3) q/q +0.8% +0.8%
AU ANZ job ads (Oct) m/m +5.8% +0.3% last
IT PMI services (Oct) 54.1 55.0
FR PMI services (Oct) 61.0 61.5
DE PMI services (Oct) 54.0 54.6
EU PMI services (Oct) 56.5 57.0
GB Ind prod (Sep) m/m +0.2% +0.4%
GB Manu output (Sep) m/m 0.0% +0.2%
EU PPI (Sep) y/y +4.6% +4.6%
DE Manu orders (Sep) m/m -2.5% -0.9%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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