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Monday November 6, 2006 - 20:10:03 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar NZD: steady as she goes
The NZD held around 0.6700 during local trading on Monday as NZ wage growth posted its biggest quarterly increase on record. The 0.9% rise in Q3 was close to expectations and supported the NZD during the local session but doubts whether the RBNZ will raise interest rates still remain. With no US data releases overnight the market continued to focus on the positive US jobs data from Friday, the USD rallied briefly taking the NZD to an intraday low circa 0.6650. A late recovery sees the NZD open at 0.6685 this morning.

Australian Dollar: AUD remains range bound
The AUD consolidated nicely on Monday after a significant sell-off late last week. The Oct inflation gauge was steady, indicating the more closely watched Q4 headline CPI will be relatively benign. Oct job ads bounced, rising 1.8% after four consecutive falls, levelling out their trend since Dec 2004 and pointing to a strong finish to 2007. The currency attempted to break through 0.7700 during the local session but ran into a bevy of willing sellers and had to wait for a sell-off to 0.7670 before staging a successful breach of the resistance level. The AUD closed up at 0.7715 against the USD and 0.8665 against the NZD.

Major Currencies: USD consolidates ahead of midterm congressional elections
A fairly quiet offshore session saw the USD consolidate on gains established on Friday after the robust US jobs data, most notably reflected in USD/JPY which remained well supported above 118.00. The euro traded in a tight range with a brief interlude below 1.2700 after the PMI services printed its fourth consecutive monthly decrease and German factory orders came in lower than expected. GBP was the biggest mover of the day, plunging below 1.9000 to a low of 1.8949 as both manufacturing and industrial production disappointed to the downside. US elections tomorrow may provide further direction for the USD with the polls favouring the Democrats to take the House of Representatives, whilst the Republicans will hold the Senate.

US Fedspeak: Chicago Fed chief Michael Moskow gave a speech in which he effectively repeated the message from recent FOMC statements. “The risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth being too low... some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary.” He said that inflation remained too high, though it had started to come down gradually; growth would be below potential over the next year; housing remained a downside risk to growth. Moskow will be a voter on the FOMC in 2007. Former Fed chair Greenspan said that the worst of the housing slump was over and that the market was no longer hurting growth.

Canadian IVEY PMI slips from 59.9 to 59.5 in Oct. The Ivey PMI tends to slip in October, but this year the slippage was very mild, and the index remains at a robust level. Comparison with the equivalent ISM manufacturing index in the US is useful; it makes the point that although the US industrial sector is entering a slower phase, the impact on Canadian industry has not yet been dramatic. Also, building permits corrected only modestly (–2.5%) from their 9% spike.

The Euroland services PMI slipped 0.1 pt in Oct,(its fourth consecutive month of decline). However the composite PMI, which includes last week’s manufacturing PMI result, edged slightly higher, although a downtrend is still in place for the composite too. Even so, results around the 56-57 level are still strong, the message being one of continued momentum in the European economy heading into Q4.

UK manufacturing was flat in Sep, perhaps pre-empting the weaker message we have already seen from some of the October industrial surveys (CBI and PMI). However the broader industrial production measure posted a 0.2% gain due to an energy-related boost in the mining sector.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
Aust Oct Cashcard Retail Index 0.7% n/f
Oct AIG PCI 53.1 n/f
Melbourne Cup (Vic Holiday) Makybe Diva Pop Rock
US Sep Consumer Credit USDbn 5.0 5.5
Fedspeak: Yellen
Eur Oct PMI Retail 52.4 n/f
Sep Retail Sales 0.7% –1.0%
Ger Sep Industrial Production 1.9% 1.5%
UK Oct BRC Retail Sales Monitor
Oct Consumer Confidence 89 95

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Q3 LCI and QES Review (6 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (6 November)
• NZ Q3 labour market preview (1 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (30 October)
• NZ RBNZ OCR Review (26 October)
• NZ Q3 CPI Review (25 October)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (24 October)
• NZ Q3 CPI Preview/OCR Preview (18 October)
• Inflation expectations and the OCR (16 October)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (16 October)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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