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Wednesday November 8, 2006 - 10:13:19 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar barely moved after US election result.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Euro-zone Retail Sales fell by more than expected in September but the rise in the Euro-zone Retail PMI suggests that sales could pick up in October again. Retail Sales fell -0.6% against previous 0.7% (MoM), while the consensus forecast was for a -0.4% fall. August has been revised to 0.5% gain fro 0.7%. Also the German industrial production fell in September by -0.3%, but the annual rate remained strong at 6.1% after having reached a record high on 7.7% in August (revised from 7.2%). The Dollar weakened on Tuesday European session and recovered part of losses in US session. EurUsd failed to hold gains above 1.2800 as investors covering their short positions built in this weeksâ€™ beginning. The Democrats took control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. Investors will focus on the battle for the US Senate as the market is left without major economic data. Most analyst think the election outcome will have little impact on the dollar, even if some argue that Democratic control of the lower house could be negative for the currency as it may lead to a rise in protectionist policies. Yesterday night, Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25bp to 6.25% as expected.
Todays Key Issues:
Bank of Englandâ€™s Monetary Policy committee meets in front of tomorrow rate decision. GB October Shop Price Index is due at 10:30 GMT previous is 0.11%. Euro ECBâ€™s Hurley speaks at news conference in Dublin at 11:00 GMT. CAD October Housing Starts due at 13:15 GMT expected 220k vs 209k. US Fedâ€™s Moskow speaks on US Economic Outlook in Indianapolis at 14:10 GMT. NZD 3Q Unemployment Rate due at 21:45 GMT is expected 3.7% vs 3.6%.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd made a quick test above 1.2800 yesterday. But it was unable to reach and overcome next resistance at 1.2834 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2941 to 1.2483 decline) and further 1.2880. Bearish short-term trend is still active under 1.2834. In this view, market could still focus on 1.2683 (early Nov. low). UsdChf, down to 1.2440 intraday, is still away from 1.2400 key support (76.4% retracement of the 1.2291 to 1.2771 advance). As long as 1.2400 barrier continues to hold downside, we could bet on further gains back towards 1.2582 minor resistance. GBPUSD is keeping a volatile tone targeting 1.9144 key resistance. Only a drop below 1.8950 would offset this broader bullish zone. USDJPY is narrowing a 116.60 to 118.50 range. We must wait for a technical breakout to signal the next powerful move.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 T ||1.9220 T ||120.00 P ||1.2800 T |
|1.2880 S ||1.9144 K ||119.90 S ||1.2707 S |
|1.2800 K ||1.9125 M ||118.50 M ||1.2582 M |
|1.2792 ||1.9082 ||117.47 ||1.2473 |
|1.2683 M ||1.8950 S ||117.25 M ||1.2400 K |
|1.2620 S ||1.8874 M ||116.60 S ||1.2287 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2185 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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