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Thursday November 9, 2006 - 09:01:40 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Little change in currencies as investors focus on US trade Balance
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Major currencies were little changed on Wednesday and traded in tight ranges as dealers are not taking aggressive bets ahead of Thursdayâ€™s US trade Balance report. Previously, investors were focused on the outcome of the US midterm elections in which the Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives and are now closer to victory in the Senate. This and resignation of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld suggest that budget spending for Iraq would be soon under review; a scenario that could support the Dollar! Chicago Federal Reserve President Moskow talked on inflation and reiterated his view that more US rate hikes might be needed to combat inflationâ€¦ It will be time to pay attention to what central banks could do. The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are expected to raise interest rates again soon, while speculation is growing that the next move from the Federal Reserve could be a rate cut in early 2007, which would lower the Dollar yield advantage.
Todays Key Issues:
Highlight is UK Bank of England interest rate announcement at 12:00 GMT, a rise at 5% is already anticipated by the market and analyst are already not expecting another rise in February. US September Trade Balance due at 13:30 GMT is expected $-66B after a record high of $-69.9B in August. Are also due at 13:30 GMT; US October Import Price Index expected -1% vs -2.1% and US Initial Jobless Claims expected 315k vs 327k. US November University of Michigan confidence due at 15.00 GMT is expected from 90 to 93.6 against previous month 93.6.
The Risk Today:
EurChf has spent the last days consolidating in the top of the bull trend. Clearing up 1.5970 would easily pave the way to 1.6000 psychological level. Next focus would be at 1.6170 (February 2000 high).
EurUsd traded in a tight range below Tuesdayâ€™s approached of 1.2834 resistance (76.4% retracement of the 1.2941-1.2483 decline) and step below 1.2800 key level. Following this correction; support are still holding 1.2683 to 1.2660 levels. A break there would put on hold the latest up trend from 1.2480 area. USDCHF recovered parts of its early week losses, but only a move above Monday's 1.2582 high would cancel the actual down pressure. Still important is the support at 1.2400 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2291-1.2771 rise. Only a break of the 1.2583 to 1.2400 range would likely bring new strong trend. GbpUsd consolidated from Tuesday's high and keeps for now this bull trend intact. Targeting 1.9144 (last week high), only a break of Monday's 1.8950 support would create a reversal trend. USDJPY is range bound, holding above support 116.60 and not far away form 118.50 resistance (61.8% retracement of the 119.67-116.57 decline). Only a move out of this range would likely signal a more powerful move.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2941 T ||1.9220 T ||120.00 P ||1.2800 T |
|1.2880 S ||1.9144 K ||119.90 S ||1.2707 S |
|1.2800 K ||1.9125 M ||118.50 M ||1.2582 M |
|1.2753 ||1.9035 ||117.94 ||1.2512 |
|1.2683 M ||1.8950 S ||117.25 M ||1.2400 K |
|1.2620 S ||1.8874 M ||116.60 S ||1.2287 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2185 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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