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Thursday November 9, 2006 - 20:20:01 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar NZD trades 10-day low after soft jobs data
NZD/USD had its second successive day of weakness on Thursday after Q3 employment fell unexpectedly by 0.4%. The implications of the result were more important than the number itself with the fall in employment taking some pressure off the RBNZ to hike interest rates in Dec. The NZD sold-off immediately following the release, moving from 0.6680 to 0.6650, continuing the weakness since breaking 0.6700. The NZD traded softly overnight moving to a 10-day low at 0.6612 however there was a brief reprieve during New York trading after US consumer sentiment slipped in Nov helping the NZD rally from the low to open at 0.6650 this morning.

Australian Dollar: Weak employment data weighs on AUD
The AUD traded a two-week low on Thursday after Oct employment data returned a weaker than expected result. The weak data came a day after the RBA hiked interest rates and, with a market already long AUD, many participants trimmed their positions and sold the AUD. The currency moved from near the high at 0.7700 to 0.7645. Late USD weakness helped the AUD recover to open around 0.7680 this morning.

Major Currencies: USD pares losses as trade deficit narrows
The USD softened to a two month low of 1.2848 against the euro during overnight trade as comments from Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan revived concerns regarding China diversifying its USD 1 trillion foreign exchange reserves. Despite weaker consumer sentiment data, the greenback pared losses following the release of a narrower US trade deficit. USD/JPY strengthened to a 118.60 high, with the chances of a Japanese rate hike seemingly delayed until the New Year. Recent Sterling gains were eroded despite the Bank of England raising base rates by 25bps to 5.00%. While the BoE judged that spare capacity is limited and tighter monetary policy is needed to return inflation to target levels, there were few clues about future policy direction. The euro and JPY are seen at 1.2835 and 117.90 respectively, with GBP at 1.9060.

Japanese bank lending softened in Oct. Bank lending growth slowed to 1.1%yr in Oct from 1.6% prior. The adjusted series (ex-securitisations, write-offs and exchange rate changes) was more resilient, slowing from 2.3%yr to 2.1%.

US trade deficit $64.3bn in Sep. The US trade deficit narrowed nearly $5bn, due to a fuel price driven plunge in imports and a modest further rise in exports (mainly due to increased sales of Boeing jets to foreign customers). With revisions to Aug, this outcome is not too far off what the Commerce Dept assumed when calculating the net exports contribution to Q3 GDP growth, so revisions there should not be too significant. With October import prices showing a similar sharp 2% fall to September, the trade deficit will likely narrow further in Oct.

US UoM consumer sentiment down 1.3 pts in Nov. A modest fall in both expectations and current conditions saw consumer sentiment slip in early November, following solid gains in the prior two months due largely to plunging gasoline prices. Maybe confidence fell because fuel prices did not keep falling this month; the mid-term elections may also have had an impact.

US initial jobless claims fell 20k to 308k, reversing their prior week’s spike, and in so doing continued to fail to show any of the trendrise which you might normally expect given the slowing in the economy in the past few quarters. Continuing claims, however, did jump, unwinding much of their recent apparent downtrend, but still not really any evidence of a slowing labour market.

Canada’s trade surplus stabilised at $4bn in Sep, compared to around $7bn per month in late 2005.

The BoE tightened rates a further 25bp to 5.0%. The statement noted firm growth, moderate household spending and recovery in investment, a positive export outlook, rapid credit growth and rising asset prices. With spare capacity limited, and inflation already above target, the Bank judged that tighter policy was required to ensure inflation eventually returned to target.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
10 Nov Jpn Sep Machinery Orders 6.7% 3%
G7 Sep Lead Indicator - OECD 104.7 n/f
13 Nov Aust RBA Qtrly Monetary Policy Statement
US Oct Mthly Budget State USDbn -47.4 -47.5
Jpn Sep Current Account ¥bn 1476.9 2000.0
Oct Trade Balance ¥bn 1605.0 1649.0
UK Oct PPI Input/Output %yr 5.1%/1.8% 3.6%/1.9%

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Q3 HLFS Review (9 November)
• NZ Q3 LCI and QES Review (6 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (6 November)
• NZ Q3 labour market preview (1 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (30 October)
• NZ RBNZ OCR Review (26 October)
• NZ Q3 CPI Review (25 October)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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