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Monday November 13, 2006 - 11:27:33 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD sentiment still poor, but some consolidation due ahead of this week’s key releases.
• JPY eyes tonight’s GDP data – LDP official against BoJ rate hike.
• AUD fails to get help from RBA statement.

Market Outlook

The USD has managed to stabilise a little in Europe this morning, despite sentiment remaining poor overall after the renewed focus on CB diversification. There are a number of key US data releases due this week and until the tone of these are known the market may be reluctant to push the USD lower, especially as recent range highs on EUR-USD are now approaching.

Some strength in the reports or at least the avoidance of weak numbers may be required to ensure that the latest EUR-USD move does not turn into a range breakout. Retail sales, industrial output, NY/Philly Fed surveys and the NAHB housing index will be key in this regard, while PPI and CPI will also be significant if there are deviant outcomes.

The JPY weakened following comments from LDP policy chief Nakagawa, who said that he was against any further policy tightening from the BoJ as the economy had yet to emerge from deflation. It is not clear whether such views are widely held in the government – especially key institutions like the MoF. However, such entities are not immune to the way the data has been developing and over the past month or so that has not been good. The comments come at a sensitive time for the JPY ahead of tonight’s Q3 GDP data (see below for preview). The 150.75 previous high on EUR-JPY is continuing to provide support and upside risk exists in the short-term. IMM positioning data (normally due Friday) is delayed until later today because of Friday’s US holiday.

The AUD failed to garner any significant encouragement from the RBA’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement. They were hawkish enough about the risks of more tightening, but seemingly tied this to CPI data, so the market is left with the idea that the earliest a rate hike would be on the table is in early February after the late January release of Q4 CPI. This will leave the AUD vulnerable to further short-term corrective pressure – 0.7600-20 a possibility.

UK PPI data was mixed, with headline numbers fairly soft but the y/y rate on core output prices rising to a stronger than expected +2.5% (highest since July) from +2.0%. GBP initially attempted to rally on the news but quickly fell back. There are many other news items scheduled for this week - CPI, average earnings, retail sales and the Inflation Report. Upside risk remains on EUR-GBP while above 0.6715.

EUR-SEK will retain downside risk while below 9.1350-9.14. Risk to 9.05-9.06 over the next day or two.

Day Ahead
Japan – Q3 GDP is due tonight (see chart) and there is likely to be some apprehension about this data. Recent monthly consumer spending numbers have been remarkably weak, although there is always a slight question mark about the reliability of this data. GDP will show how genuine this consumer weakness has been. A negative outcome on q/q GDP would put an end to any lingering expectations of a BoJ rate hike this year.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

EU ECB’s Trichet speaks 08.15
US Federal budget (Oct) 14.00 -$49bn
NZ PPI output (Q3) q/q 16.45 +2.7% last
JP GDP (Q3 prel) q/q 18.50 +0.2%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Domestic CGPI (Oct) y/y +2.8% +3.3%
JP Current account (Sep, sa) ¥1.4trn ¥1.6trn
CN CPI (Oct) y/y +1.4% +1.6%
JP Ind prod (Sep, final) m/m -0.7% -0.7%
JP Consumer confidence (Oct) 48.2 48.3
GB PPI input (Oct) m/m -0.1% -0.5%
GB PPI output (Oct) m/m -0.2% -0.1%
GB PPI output core (Oct) y/y +2.5% +2.3%
GB DCLG house prices (Sep) y/y +8.0% +8.0%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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