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Tuesday November 14, 2006 - 10:30:55 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar rebound from last week losses.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar rebound from last week losses and gained on major currencies on Monday following the rumors that foreign central banks will possibly reduce their US currency holdings. This speculation started last week after Chinese officials said they could move out of Dollar reserves for diversification into other currencies. Yesterday, the Yen fell after the policy chief of Japanâ€™s ruling party said he opposed an interest rate hike. This created some concerns about strength of Japanese economic growth. However, Jpy reversed and rallied this morning after data showed Japanâ€™s economy grew more rapidly than expected; this is confirming expectations that the BoJ may still raise interest rates in the next few months. Japan GDP expanded at 2% annual rate (3Q) vs 1% expected, while previous quarter has been revised 1.5% from 1%. This surprising strong data kept alive the possibility of the BoJ to raise rate to 0.5% by the next few months from 0.25%. But, some Forex investors are only expecting this raise in January or February. UsdJpy slide 0.8% from yesterday high 118.30 to low 117.41 early today. Despite the surprise, the JPY remains under pressure as GDP was the only positive data after a run of weak economic figures.
Todays Key Issues:
Are due at 10:00 GMT; German ZEW Economic Sentiment Nov expected -25 vs -27.4, German ZEW Current Situation expected 44 vs 42.9, Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Nov expected -11 vs -12.5. Are due at 13:30 GMT; US October PPI exected -0.5% vs 1.3% (MoM) and -0.6% vs 0.9% (YoY), US October Advance Retail Sales expected -0.4% unchanged, Retail Sales Less Autos expected -0.2% vs -0.5%. US September Business Inventories due at 15:00 GMT is expected 0.5% vs 0.6%.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd last week gains pushed up to 1.2901 high, which is also crossing the trend-line resistance originating from early Jul. Key resistances are still located at 1.2941 and the 1.2981. A broke there would open a strong bullish development exposing 1.3000 and over. The come back from 1.2901 is helping USD bulls; however it must go below 1.2750 to cancel the actual bullish Euro tone. UsdChf is keeping slight up trend following the rebound from last week 1.2346 low. Further advance could expand till 1.2525 and 1.2585. GbpUsd has failed to stay over the last week break of 1.9144 high. This return opens the door down 1.9060 support and targets 1.8950, which would confirm the end of recent up trend. UsdJpy remains choppy and a break of either 116.60 on the downside or 118.50 on the topside is needed to initiate the next directional move within the broader 116.06 / 119.90 range.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2981 S ||1.9220 T ||120.00 P ||1.2800 T |
|1.2941 T ||1.9144 K ||119.90 S ||1.2707 S |
|1.2901 S ||1.9125 M ||118.50 S ||1.2525 M |
|1.2840 ||1.9041 ||117.74 ||1.2414 |
|1.2750 M ||1.8950 S ||117.25 M ||1.2346 M |
|1.2620 S ||1.8875 M ||116.60 S ||1.2290 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2185 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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