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Tuesday November 14, 2006 - 20:14:20 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar NZD follows AUD lower overnight
Yesterday was an opportunity for exporters to buy NZD’s below 0.6600, however the chance did not last long as the currency drifted up to around 0.6625 over the course of the day, largely prompted by USD weakness. Earlier, the currency did rally marginally on the release of better-than-expected Q3 PPI data which showed prices rose 2.0%, or 6.9% annually. Output prices rose 0.7%, or 4.5% for the year. Given the lack of significance the data has on monetary policy, the NZD quickly corrected itself to where it was before the data was released. Overnight selling saw the NZD under pressure, with the currency opening today around 0.6600.

Australian Dollar: Favourable business conditions support AUD
After opening on its lows the AUD rallied over the course of the day, partially prompted by a stronger JPY, as the currency ended the day just short of 0.7650. Support was also found from the Oct NAB business survey which showed that business conditions remain surprisingly robust, up four points to +18. However, with the market overbought of AUD, traders appeared hesitant to take the currency too much higher. USD weakness led to a higher AUD overnight before selling knocked it back to this morning’s opening level around 0.7660.

Major Currencies: Japanese GDP growth strengthens
The USD had a mixed day yesterday with the JPY weakening from a high of 118.18 to a 117.25 low following a robust Q3 GDP reading. US retail sales fell in Oct which also dampened any chance of further dollar gains. Comments from the French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin caused a sell off in the euro as his remarks were seen as a call for a weaker euro to aid exports and growth in the eurozone. The euro fell sharply from an overnight high of 1.2872 to 1.2790 and opens this morning around 1.2817. Sterling recovered some of Monday’s losses during yesterday’s local session trading back to a high of 1.9051. These gains were more than reversed with an overnight low of 1.8925 due to the UK October CPI falling short of expectations with 2.4% change yr/yr.

Japanese Q3 GDP rose 2.0% annualised, 2.7%yr. The headline outcome was above expectations, but close enough to our own figuring.

US retail sales fall 0.2% in Oct. Retail sales fell because of a continued slump in the value of gasoline sales. Despite industry data showing a 2% decline in auto sales, auto dealerships reported a modest sales gain in October – that sometimes happens. Excluding those factors, core retailing rose 0.3%, close to our 0.4% forecast. But the big news was a cumulative 0.7ppt downward revision to sales ex autos & gas in August and September, led by the building materials category. A downward revision to the consumer spending component of Q3 GDP growth now seems inevitable.

US core PPI plunges 0.9% in Oct. The PPI was distorted once again by wild swings in factory vehicle prices, mainly reflecting new model year pricing irregularities that the seasonal adjustment process can’t get to grips with. Excluding vehicles, the core PPI would have risen 0.1%. These vehicle price swings won’t be reflected in the CPI on Thursday, although the energy price falls should be.

Other US news in brief: A fall in retail auto stocks constrained business inventory growth to a 0.4% gain. Sluggish weekly retail data: Redbook up 0.3% and chain store sales down 0.8%.

Euroland GDP growth slowed to 0.5% in Q3, almost certainly only half of the Q2 growth pace, which has not yet been revised higher in this advance report but should be when updated data are published.

UK CPI annual rate unchanged at 2.4% yr in Oct, against widespread expectations of renewed acceleration.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
NZ Q3 Retail Sales Volumes -0.5% 0.8%
Sep Retail Sales 0.0% -0.5%
REINZ House Prices (due 15-20th) 7.9% n/f
Aust Nov Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment 3.9% n/f
Q3 House Price Index 2.6% 0.8%
Q3 Wage Price Index 1.1% 1.1%
US Nov Empire State NY Fed Index 22.9 10.0
FOMC Minutes, Oct 25 Meeting
Eur Sep Industrial Production 1.8% 0.2%
UK Oct Unemployment ch ’000 10.2 7.0
BoE Quarterly Inflation Report

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Interest Rate Strategy Weekly (14 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (13 November)
• NZ Q3 HLFS Review (9 November)
• NZ Q3 LCI and QES Review (6 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (6 November)
• NZ Q3 labour market preview (1 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (30 October)
• NZ RBNZ OCR Review (26 October)
• NZ Q3 CPI Review (25 October)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (24 October)
• NZ Q3 CPI Preview/OCR Preview (18 October)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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