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Tuesday August 3, 2004 - 11:06:12 GMT
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US OPEN MARKET POINTS 08-03-04

The Need for Fear

A quite session both in Asia and in Europe tonight against little economic news. The most important data point of the day comes during the US Open when traders will focus on US personal spending which is expected to decrease materially to –0.1% from 1.0% last month. “Personal spending figures are expected to be quite weak”, states CALYON research,” given the June decline in motor vehicle sales and a drop in non-auto retail sales.”

So - a lower then expected US GDP, anemic US consumer spending, ominous signs of employment slowdown in both Chicago PMI and ISM indexes – why isn’t the dollar dropping? The question must truly grate the nerves of USD bears who can cite a myriad of reasons for imminent dollar collapse. Their biggest problem however, is that they have too much company. Although the most recent data from IMM shows that EUR longs have been pared down by 18K contracts over the past week, the market is still skewed predominantly euro long. With so many players long euro who is left buy more?

Additionally, tonight, the NY Times reports that the most recent Al- Qaeda threat was based on information that was 4 years old. This revelation removes some of the geo-political risk factored into the USD and puts the bid back into the greenback. Overall the market seems intent on ignoring dollar bearish news for time being. It may even chose to focus on the possible rebound in July auto sales to 17MM unit annual rate, as a sign that consumer demand may have hit bottom and is ready to bounce back. Regardless, it seems clearer by the day, that fundamentals notwithstanding, neither the euro nor the pound will offer much of a rally until they decline further and create more complacent USD bulls. Only when the euro collapses below 1.19-1.20 and the pound dives bellow 1.80-1.81, only when most dollar bears will cover shorts and walk away in disgust, only when every analyst starts to proclaim that 1.17 euro and 1.75 cable are right around the corner – will the majors have a chance to stage a meaningful rally against the dollar. The market needs more fear.


Key Overnight Developments

- EUR PPI stays steady at 0% Unemployment does not budge remains 9.0%
- CHF Swiss inflation well below forecast –1.0% vs. consensus –0.6% quelling any expectations of SNB hikes
- GBP CBI registers huge drop in retail sales 24% vs. 43% last month, dampening chances of 50bp hike from BoE

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR tests 2000 level but rebounds fast holding support so far
- JPY climbs back above 111 on Nikkei weakness
- GBP loses 8200 handle on profit taking receding terror risk
- CHF break 2800 once more as low inflation numbers drive dollar to 125 pip gain

Upcoming Events

12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Personal Income (June) Expected at 0.3%, Previous 0.6%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Personal Spending (June) Expected at –0.1%, Previous 1.0%

Afternoon: USD US Auto Sales Expected at 16.7MM, Previous 15.4MM

 

Forex Trading News

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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