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Wednesday November 15, 2006 - 09:03:57 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Forex market was mixed on soft US data and weak Eurozone data.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The German GDP was little weaker than expected (3Q) at 0.6%, taking the annual growth rate up to 2.8% (six-year highest). First and second quarters have been revised up at respectively 0.8% from 0.7% and 1.1% from 0.9%. November German Zew economic sentiment showed investorsâ€™ expectations lower again at -28.5 from -27.4. But the November Zew Current sentiment, which is more correlated with GDP, grew at a new high 53 from 42.9 in October. Euro-zone GDP third quarter was disappointing but growth is still expected to be very strong in 2006. It expanded by 0.5% (survey 0.6%) in 3Q following previous 0.9% increase in 2Q. The annual growth rate slipped from 2.7% to 2.6%. It is still expected to average at a solid 2.7% in 2006. US October PPI data were also weaker than expected at -1.6% (survey -0.5%) decline vs -1.3 the previous months and -1.6% at annual rate. This was largely due to recent declines in energy prices. Following all these data, the Forex market was mixed yesterday; EurUsd went up to 1.2870 intraday, but the Dollar recovered after the French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin called for more collaboration among Euro-zone monetary authorities on managing the exchange rate. GbpUsd went down 0.5% from 1.9050 to 1.8960. UsdJpy traded in a very tight range from 117.96 to 117.26. As well did EurJpy; from 151.30 to 150.60.
Todays Key Issues:
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting to end tomorrow, actual rate 0.25%. GB October Jobless Claims change due at 9:30 GMT is expected 5k vs 10.2K. Euro-zone September Industrial Production due at 10:00 GMT is expected -0.3% vs 1.80% (MoM) and 4.5% vs 5.4%. GB Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report due at 10:30 GMT. US Minutes of FOMC Meeting (Oct 24) are due at 19:00 GMT.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd was choppy on Tuesday and weakness below 1.2750 would open the way to 1.2680 and next support 1.2620. On the up actual trend, we may look for extended gains over 1.2901 which would drive Euro further up towards the 1.2980. UsdChf is stronger over 1.2400; a break of 1.2525 and 1.2585 would confirm threatening bullish. If not, we could consider near-term gains to be corrective and expect 1.2346 to be under pressure. GBPUSD is under pressure to; expect some follow-through of Tuesday's move below the support 1.8950 which would expose support 1.8875. A break of this level will suggest a more significant sell-off towards the 1.8601 base. On the upside, a recovery over 1.9144 is needed to reconfirm the advance. USDJPY remains choppy, looking for a break of either 116.60 on the downside or 118.50 on the topside which could provide the next directional move.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2981 S ||1.9220 T ||120.00 P ||1.2800 T |
|1.2941 T ||1.9144 K ||119.90 S ||1.2707 S |
|1.2901 S ||1.9125 M ||118.50 S ||1.2525 M |
|1.2815 ||1.8957 ||117.68 ||1.2436 |
|1.2750 M ||1.8950 S ||117.25 M ||1.2346 M |
|1.2620 S ||1.8875 M ||116.60 S ||1.2290 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2185 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
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00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
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13:30 US- Retail Sales
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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