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Wednesday November 15, 2006 - 12:38:19 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 15-Nov-2006...1135 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and

EUR-JPY by registering at

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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are

given below
---------------------



$-Swiss @ 1.2501/6....Resistance at 1.2525-40
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.2512-26 / 1.2545
S: 1.2480 / 1.2450
There has been a sharp rally in the $-Swiss during the day bringing it up to its statistically projected Max High for the day of 1.2512. It has important Moving Average Resistance at 1.2526 and then at 1.2545, which falls on the trendline on the 4-Hourly, joining the highs of 1.2773 (13-Oct) and 1.2707 (24-Oct) over today or tomorrow.

The Resistance being strong, we would not look for a break thereof tonight. Instead, a pullback towards 1.2470-60 could be seen while the market remains below 1.2540. IN CASE of a rise past 1.2540 we may a Trend Reversal (of downmove since 1.2773 on 13-Oct) on our hands, which could take the back up towards 1.2675-2700 in the days ahead.


Cable @ 1.8856/61....200-MA on 4-hour here
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.8875 / 1.8900 / 1.8920
S: 1.8825 / 1.8800
The Cable has had a sharp plunge during the day continuing the sell off in the pair for the third day. From a medium term perspective, the market may have entered into Bear territory today with Resistance at 1.8940.

For today, we are already near statistically projected Max Low for the day of 1.8861. A bit of profit-taking pullback might be reasonable. Intraday the Resistances on a recovery would come in at 1.8875 and at 1.8900. A move above the latter is unexpected and a rally to that should be used to sell with stop above 1.8925.

IN CASE of a break below 1.8845 today, a further fall towards 1.8800 may be seen. The Significant Support for the week is now at 1.8700.




Aussie @ 0.7638/42.....Sell on rally
-------------------------------------
R: 0.7660 / 0.7675 / 0.7687
S: 0.7633 / 0.7616-12 / 0.7600 / 0.7580
The Aussie has continued to show weakness during the day as it slipped to a low of 0.7633. It currently looks to be headed towards 0.7616, where it had bottomed earlier in the week. If that breaks, there could be a fall towards 0.7580 over today or tomorrow. The important Supports today are at 0.7616-12, the latter being the statistically projected Max Low for the day and then at 0.7600.

On the upside the Resistances are at 0.7660 and then at 0.7675. Note that the statistically projected Max High for the day is at 0.7687. The bearish bias in the pair continues and we look to sell on a small rally.

Order:
Sell AUD 20K at 0.7650, SL 0.7670, TP 0.7600. As soon as the market trades at 0.7620 after Entry, bring SL down to 0.7650.




Happy Trading!

 

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