Thursday November 16, 2006 - 06:15:03 GMT
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Daily Forecast for EURJPYEURJPY
Resistance: 151.47 ... 151.69 ... 151.89 ... 152.14
Support: 150.93 ... 150.73 ... 150.53 ... 150.27
While 150.93-151.08 supports we feel the ideal daily target at 152.14-34 can be seen
Failure to break below 150.27-45 once again has caused a move to retest the 151.41-47 highs. While this pullback remains above 150.93-151.08 we feel there can be a final move higher to 152.14-34 to complete a daily target and we view this as a major peak.
Failure to see a break below 150.27 is raising the risk of a final move to the long term 152.14-34 target area which if seen should cap for a larger decline. (November 15th)
Only a direct loss of 150.90 would stop a final move to 152.14-34. Thus sell at the resistance area or a break below 150.90 which would then generate a stronger move lower. Next support is at 150.27-53 followed by 149.75.
With lack of follow through we may have to see a spike to 152.14-34 before the larger picture turns lower. Thus sell at this higher level or a direct break below 150.27 for a decline to see 148.54-84. (November 15th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The failure to break lower and the rather erratic decline is beginning to suggest this is merely a Wave iv within a larger Wave (c) that would see extension higher to the 152.14-34 daily targets.
Only an earlier break below 150.27 being a 58.6% retracement in Wave iii would signal direct losses that should move to the prior Wave (b) area at 148.84 and possibly the Wave (iv) at 148.49.
The move to 151.41 once again looks like Wave a of Wave v and thus while Wave b remains above the 50%-58.6% pullback at 150.93-151.08 we look for a final rally to the 61.8%-66.7% projections in Wave v at the 152.14-34 target to complete the rally.
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