Thursday November 16, 2006 - 10:23:33 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Yne carry-trade has unwound before
â€˘ U.K. retail sales jumped in October; sales rose 0.9 percent, the biggest gain since November 2005. (Bloomberg)
â€˘ Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui reiterated at a news conference on Thursday that he has no preset idea regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes. (Reuters)
â€˘ Key Reports (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. For Nov 11 Wk. Expected: +3K. Previous: -20K.
8:30a.m. Oct Consumer Price Index. Expected: -0.2%. Previous: -0.5%.
8:30a.m. Oct CPI, Ex-Food & Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.2%.
9:15a.m. Sept Treasury Intl Capital Flows. Previous: $116.8B.
9:15a.m. Oct Industrial Production. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: -0.6%.
9:15a.m. Oct Capacity Utilization. Expected: 82.0%. Previous: 81.9%.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. For Nov 4 Wk. Previous: -0.6%.
12:00p.m. Nov Philadelphia Fed Business Index. Expected: 6.5. Previous: -0.7.
1:00pm. Nov NAHB Housing Market Index. Previous: 31.
4:30p.m. Money Supply.
China still export-driven and why crushing the dollar is not in their best interest:
â€śThe growth in intraregional trade (now 40% of the total) over the past few years has been driven not so much by domestic demand, but rather on the back of increasing specialisation in the production chain. Many of the intraregional shipments comprise components that are assembled for OECD markets, or machinery that is geared towards export production. We believe that about half of Chinaâ€™s imports are such equipment and components. Moreover, demand from other developed markets is also likely to be hurt by a US downturn, not to mention the multiplier effect on domestic demand from the loss in export income. Therefore, we remain wary that a slowdown in global demand and reduction in investment risk appetite that withdraws liquidity from the region would have a negative impact on Chinaâ€™s growth.â€ť
FX Trading â€“ Yen carry-trade has unwound beforeâ€¦
All the â€śgoodâ€ť news flowing from Japan of late and yet euro-yen keeps on climbingâ€¦hmmmâ€¦
Now a look at euro-yen the last time the carry-trade came unwound, triggered by risk-reduction back in 1998, courtesy of the Asian financial crisisâ€¦
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