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Thursday November 16, 2006 - 10:33:33 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Forex are waiting for CPI data and signs for rate hike.
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar has been again mixed yesterday with the release of the FOMC minutes from its October meeting in which policy makers said inflation remained the â€śgreatest concernâ€ť. According to the FOMC minutes, members said reducing inflation over time to counter expectations of higher prices was the most important. After Tuesdayâ€™s data showed the largest fall in US PPI in five years and with US CPI expected to fall in data due today; analysts are not expecting new signs for a further rise in the Fed Funds rate in the near future. This will not helped Dollar for more advance against majors currencies. EurUsd ended yesterday at 1.2826 up 0.15% after having hit session low at 1.2774. UsdJpy was up 0.3% at 117.93 while the EurJpy was up 0.5% at 151.34. EurChf made a run at 1.6000 psychological level yesterday and is now a consolidating just under that level. Supports are holding 1.5959 and 1.5944 (61.8% retracement of 1.5910 to 1.6002). As long as its holds, forex technicians will favor a run toward next resistance at 1.6037.
Todays Key Issues:
It is busy news day in Europe and US. GB October Retail Sales due at 9:30 GMT are expected 0.3% vs -0.4% (MoM) and 3.2% unchanged (YoY). Euro zone October CPI due at 10:00 GMT is expected 0.1% vs 0% (MoM) and 1.6% vs 1.7% (YoY). Are due at 13:30 GMT; US October CPI expected -0.3% vs -0.5% (MoM) and 1.5% vs 2.1% (YoY), CPI ex-food and energy expected 0.2% unchanged (MoM) and 2.9% unchanged (YoY), Consumer Price Index is 207.40, Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 11) is expected 310k vs 308k. Are due at 14:15 GMT; US Industrial Production October expected 0.3% vs -0.6%, US Capacity Utilization October expected 82% vs 81.9%. US November Philadelphia Fed Business Index due at 17:00 GMT is expected 5 vs -0.7.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd remains choppy; new weakness below 1.2750 would be necessary creates some down tone near-term and targets 1.2620, which is necessary to confirm downtrend. Otherwise, a cautiously bullish band will remain and a possible gain could extend 1.2901, which will expose further upside to 1.2981. USDCHF is consolidating over the last Fridayâ€™s break 1.2432, but only a break of 1.2525 would confirm bullish trend which will define 1.2346 low as short term support. But some correction is still possible with the focus still on 1.2346. GBPUSD has been again under pressure following Tuesday's break of the 1.8950 level; under this former support, looks for immediate more bearish tone. More weakness below 1.8840 would expose further downside towards 1.8770 (61.8% retracement of the 1.8516 to 1.9182 advance) and 1.8601 support. USDJPY remains in a choppy range, it would need a break of either 116.57 on the downside or 118.61 on the topside required to provide the next meaningful directional move within the range 116.06 / 119.90.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2981 S ||1.9220 T ||120.00 P ||1.2800 T |
|1.2941 T ||1.9144 K ||119.90 S ||1.2707 S |
|1.2901 S ||1.8950 S ||118.50 S ||1.2525 M |
|1.2814 ||1.8858 ||118.10 ||1.2475 |
|1.2750 M ||1.8840 M ||117.25 M ||1.2346 M |
|1.2620 S ||1.8770 S ||116.60 S ||1.2290 S |
|1.2450 T ||1.8601 P ||116.06 T ||1.2185 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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