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Monday November 20, 2006 - 05:38:20 GMT
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Daily forecast for EURUSD

EURUSD

Price: 1.2841

Resistance: 1.2845 ... 1.2870 ... 1.2902 ... 1.2938

Support: 1.2805 ... 1.2790 ... 1.2760 ... 1.2745

[IMG]http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUR60mNov20.gif[/IMG]

Bias: Look for an initial test of 1.2863-75 & while the pullback remains above 1.2790-00 we remain bullish

Daily Bullish: It was disappointing that the correction did not meet our favored 1.2693-1.2745 target but the reversal higher on Friday appears to have broken the sequence of lower highs and thus we should see strength over time. Today should see 1.2790-05 support and test the 1.2863-75 area (max 1.2902) which should be followed by a correction lower. Any earlier breach of 1.2902 would provide a stronger bullish structure and extension of gains to 1.2938-76 at least.

MT Bullish: The reversal higher on Friday appears to confirm the uptrend and while 1.2790-05 supports we shall look for gains above 1.2976 and onto 1.3180 at least and we suspect higher. (November 20th)

Daily Bearish: Failure to break below 1.2760 disappointed but does appear to complete the downside correction. Thus we advise caution on any bearish stance. There is support at 1.2790-05 which we feel should hold. Only a break below would trigger additional losses down to 1.2745-60 which should be watched carefully. The 1.2693 support also remains as important.

MT Bearish: Friday’s recovery appears to suggest the downside correction is complete and thus only back below 1.2760 would raise the risk of 1.2745 and probably 1.2693. (November 20th)


ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

[IMG]http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/EUREWNov20.gif[/IMG]

17th November

Still no break of key support or resistance but we do feel that a key low is not very far away. Favored support is at 1.2693-1.2745 being the 38.2% and 50% retracements in Wave B. Any earlier break above the 1.2840 level would break the sequence of lower highs and trigger a return to the 1.2894-34 area being 161.8% % 223.6% projections of a small possible Wave iii.

20th November

We feel the decline to 1.2760 has completed a triple three and thus we label the 1.2760 low as Wave B. This should see a move to just under the 1.2902 high in Wave –a- followed by a pullback in Wave –b- that should remain above the 1.2790-05 area to allow Wave –c- to develop.

Ian Copsey

 

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