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Monday November 20, 2006 - 11:44:43 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• G20 meeting fails to unveil fresh concern on the JPY…
• …although Watanabe did argue against JPY depreciation earlier today.
• New highs on EUR-JPY recorded in Europe.
• EUR-USD higher, but upside may remain limited.
• CAD still vulnerable after Friday’s move.

Market Outlook

The G20 meeting failed to reveal anything new about FX, although some officials said that discussion of currencies had been going on behind closed doors. The main concern had been about the JPY, although other than a comment from Watanabe earlier this morning about there being no need for the JPY to depreciate further, there was no mention of the JPY or EUR-JPY in particular. This has allowed EUR-JPY to move to fresh highs in Europe this morning.

Latest IMM positioning data showed spec net JPY shorts narrowing a little further to 55,012 contracts from 63,512 previously. This is still a sizeable position but well down on the numbers seen in previous weeks and clearly less of a constraint to further JPY weakness. As was the case last week, the key for short-term direction will be whether EUR-JPY can close outside of a 150.75-151.50 range and the initial risk this week is clearly to the upside. It seems unlikely though that all relevant officials will stand by and watch EUR-JPY soaring higher without passing comment, so there is much room for volatility.

Friday’s very weak US housing starts data and more significantly talk of a US hedge fund in trouble (later denied) helped to put EUR-USD on a more even keel, as it had been threatening lower. However, with the top end of the current range still in close proximity, the market may again be reluctant to really take on upside this week. Wednesday’s Michigan sentiment is the only major US data release of interest this week, while the German IFO is the highlight in Europe. It seems unlikely that either of these will significantly add to market intelligence on Fed and ECB rate prospects. Thursday’s holiday in the US, which for many will extend through Friday, is also likely to weigh on market interest and possibly EUR-USD as well.

The CAD declined last week, with Wednesday’s weak manufacturing data being supplemented on Friday by a sharp fall in the price of oil. All of this comes against a background of nervousness following the recent announcement about future plans to alter the rules on income trusts. Wholesale sales data today could have an impact as it will provide a taster about spending with retail sales to come tomorrow. After Friday’s price action there is some upside risk on USD-CAD, as long as it stays above 1.1400-30.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Wholesale sales (Sep) m/m 08.30 -0.3%
US Lead indicators (Oct) m/m 10.00 +0.2%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB Rightmove house prices (Nov) y/y +12.4% +11.7% last
GB BBA mortgage lending (Oct) +£5.5bn +£5.4bn last
GB PNSCR (Oct) -£8.4bn -£5.0bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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